Recent Updates
- ** India's RBI Effective XR have rebased from 2004-05=100 to 2015-16=100. We are currently working on these changes. **
- Indonesia: CPI (Feb)
- Japan: Market Capitalization (Feb)
- Korea: Passenger Car Trade (Q4), MOTIE Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 4, 2005
The February index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan fell to 94.1 versus the preliminary reading of 94.2 and 95.5 in January. Consensus expectations had been for 94.2. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
Consumer expectations fell 1.5% m/m but the decline was slightly less than initially estimated.
The reading of current conditions fell 1.5% m/m versus the preliminary read of no change. Sentiment regarding personal finances fell m/m but surged 9.0% vs. a year ago. During the last ten years there has been an 81% correlation between the current conditions index and y/y growth in payroll employment. Buying conditions for large household goods fell m/m but rose last quarter versus 4Q04.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 94.1 | 95.5 | -0.3% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 109.2 | 110.9 | 5.4% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 84.4 | 85.7 | -4.6% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |