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Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 4, 2005
Non-farm payrolls rose 262,000 in February, doubling the prior month's increase which was downwardly revised. Consensus expectations had been for a 225,000 rise.
From the separate household survey the unemployment rate rose to 5.4%. Employment fell 97,000 (+1.3% y/y) while the labor force expanded 153,000 (1.1% y/y). The labor force participation rate remained stable m/m at 65.8% versus a high in 2000 of 67.3%.
Factory sector payrolls recovered all of the lessened 20,000 January decline. The breadth of hiring gain narrowed, however, as indicated by a decline in the one month diffusion index to 43.5%. That index rose above 60% early in 2004.
Construction jobs rose 30,000 (4.0% y/y) versus a revised no change in January.
Private service producing payrolls rose 174,000 (2.1% y/y) led by a strong 81,000 (3.9% y/y) gain in professional & business services. Education & health services jobs rose 18,000 (2.4% y/y) and financial jobs rose 12,000 (2.1% y/y). Government employment increased 33,000 (0.9% y/y) though federal government jobs rose just 2,000 (-0.4% y/y).
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.2% January gain. In 1Q the index is 0.6% (AR) ahead of 4Q04.
Average hourly earnings rose were unchanged reflecting a 0.1% (+2.6% y/y) in private service producing earnings. Manufacturing earnings rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y).
Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on the tax system can be found here.
Employment | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 262,000 | 132,000 | 1.8% | 1.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Manufacturing | 20,000 | -20,000 | 0.4% | -1.2% | -4.9% | -7.2% |
Average Weekly Hours | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
Unemployment Rate | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% |