Recent Updates
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Oct), ECB Banking Lending Survey (Q4)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease
Gasoline prices fell four cents last week to an average $2.84 per gallon (+14.6% y/y)...
German PPI Makes Sharp Gain on Rising Energy Costs
The German PPI rose by a strong 0.6% in September, but the PPI excluding energy gained just 0.1%...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Fall Further
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index declined 1.3% during the last four weeks...
Japan’s METI Sector Indexes Rebound But Still Lag
Japan's economy continues to fight for revival...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Weaken, Dragging Down Prices
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes during September declined 3.4% to 5.150 million...
by Tom Moeller February 28, 2005
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose for the second month and increased to 62.7 in February, beating Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.2.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 82% during the last five years.
The employment index surged 4.9 points to 57.7, the highest level since November. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders index rose to the highest level since October.
The index of prices paid fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly a year. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Feb | Jan | Feb '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 62.7 | 62.4 | 64.7 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 68.5 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 70.1 | 76.5 | 67.7 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
