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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 24, 2005
Durable goods orders fell 0.9% in January following an upwardly revised gain in December of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been for no change.
Orders for transportation equipment weakened during the last two months, down 5.3% in January and 2.2% in December due to huge declines in commercial and defense aircraft orders. Less transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.8% (13.2% y/y) last month following an upwardly revised 2.8% December increase.
Nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.2% but less aircraft orders rose 2.9% after an upwardly revised 3.3% December spurt.
Orders for computers & electronic products fell 1.2% (+11.1% y/y) following the upwardly revised 8.3% surge in December. Electrical equipment orders jumped 13.1% (14.6% y/y) and machinery orders rose 0.3% (18.3% y/y). Primary metals orders logged a third consecutive month of strength with a 1.6% rise (27.2% y/y) and orders for fabricated metals rose 1.2% as well (+7.6% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods jumped 0.9% (8.6% y/y). Combined with a 1.5% (12.4% y/y) surge in shipments, which followed a 2.8% December jump, the I/S ratio fell to the lowest level since last May.
Unfilled orders slipped 0.2%, the first monthly decline in a year (+8.9% y/y). As shipments surged during the last two months, the ratio of backlogs to shipments reversed nearly all of last year's gains.
NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | -0.9% | 1.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 2.6% | -1.7% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.2% | -0.7% | 18.8% | 13.7% | 5.6% | -7.2% |
Excluding Aircraft | 2.9% | 3.3% | 17.0% | 11.7% | 6.6% | -7.1% |