Recent Updates
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley February 22, 2005
Data released today show that Russian Gross Domestic Product rose 7.14% in real terms in 2004, marginally less than the 7.35% rise in 2003.
Growth in consumption accelerated to a 9.20% increase from a 6.24% rise in 2003. Imports, perhaps in part at least, due to the rise in consumption, rose sharply. They were up 23.92 % from the 17.66% rise in 2003. The 13.14% rise in exports in 2004 was little changed from the 12.47% of 2003. The year to year growth in exports and imports is shown in the first chart. The growth in Gross fixed investment was 10.83% last year compared to 12.47% in the previous year. Inventory accumulation was a positive, if relatively small, factor in the rise of GDP. Total GDP for the year amounted to 16,779 billion rubles or $535.billion. Per capita GDP in dollar terms was a little more than $4000 in 2004.
Although inflation has come down from extremely high levels of 2000, it continues to be high. The GDP deflator rose 18.64% in 2004, up from 13.67% in 2003. The second chart shows the rate of increase in real GDP and in the GDP deflator.
GDP (Bil. 2000 Rubles) | Q4 04 | Q3 04 | Q4 03 | Q/Q % | Y/Y % |
2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Domestic Product | 2371.8 | 2307.2 | 2224.9 | 2.80 | 9.60 | 7.14 | 7.35 | 4.74 | 5.09 |
Consumption | 1541.5 | 1498.6 | 1402.9 | 2.86 | 9.88 | 9.20 | 6.24 | 7.02 | 6.83 |
Household | 1225.3 | 1184.3 | 1093.0 | 3.46 | 12.10 | 11.26 | 7.51 | 8.50 | 9.50 |
Government | 295.6 | 294.2 | 289.2 | 0.48 | 5.21 | 2.35 | 2.47 | 2.60 | -0.78 |
Non Profit Institutions Serving Households | 20.6 | 20.1 | 20.7 | 2.49 | -0.48 | -0.49 | 1.11 | 0.74 | 1.90 |
Gross Capital Formation | 448.3 | 435.2 | 414.9 | 2.99 | 8.05 | 10.83 | 12.94 | 2.78 | 10.25 |
Inventory Change | 91.9 | 36.3 | 76.6 | 55.6* | 15.3* | 73.9* | 26.1* | -79.5* | 102.3* |
Net Exports | 291.7 | 292.0 | 324.5 | -0.3* | -32.8* | -125.9* | 39.8* | 10.4* | -192.9* |
Exports | 1237.0 | 1185.8 | 1080.0 | 3.90 | 14.07 | 13.14 | 12.47 | 10.26 | 4.22 |
Imports | 940.3 | 893.8 | 755.5 | 5.20 | 24.46 | 23.92 | 17.66 | 14.58 | 18.72 |
Deflator (2000=100) | 194.6 | 180.33 | 161.03 | 7.9 | 20.86 | 18.64 | 13.67 | 15.47 | 19.49 |