Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 18, 2005
The preliminary February index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan fell to 94.2 versus Consensus expectations for stability at 95.5. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The decline was due to a lower reading of consumer expectations which fell 2.7% m/m on top of a 5.7% decline in January. The decline in expectations was to the lowest level since last May and due to reduced expectations for business conditions & real income growth.
The reading of current conditions was stable. Sentiment regarding personal finances vs. a year ago jumped. During the last ten years there has been an 81% correlation between the current conditions index and y/y growth in payroll employment. Buying conditions for large household goods improved on strong gains in 4Q04.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 94.2 | 95.5 | -0.2% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 110.9 | 110.9 | 7.0% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 83.4 | 85.7 | -5.8% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |