Recent Updates
- ** India's RBI Effective XR have rebased from 2004-05=100 to 2015-16=100. We are currently working on these changes. **
- Indonesia: CPI (Feb)
- Japan: Market Capitalization (Feb)
- Korea: Passenger Car Trade (Q4), MOTIE Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone February 17, 2005
The Mexican economy had its strongest performance since 2000, shown in GDP data reported late yesterday by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Information. Real GDP (in basic prices*) grew 1.7% in Q4, putting four-quarter growth at 4.9% and the total for 2004 at 4.4%. This was the largest increase since 6.6% in 2000.
In Q4, manufacturing and trade and tourism led the way. Manufacturing's actual growth was moderate, 0.5%, but that represented a turnaround from a decline of 0.2% in Q3. Wholesale and retail trade and restaurants and hotels together grew 4.0% in Q4, its strongest quarterly gain since Q1 2000, that is, nearly five years. Transportation and communication output rose 1.5% in the last quarter, somewhat less than Q3's 2.5%, but the four-quarter pace was a steamy 9.9%.
In recent years, the fortunes of the Mexican economy have been heavily tied to those of the United States. NAFTA is probably a contributor to that, as the correlation of the two countries' GDP trends changed toward becoming much more parallel in the early 1990s when NAFTA was enacted. In the second graph here, the linkage is illustrated by the path of exports in maquiladora industries. Receipts from tourism were also up sharply during the first three quarters of 2004. These relationships with Mexican GDP growth are not exact, but they do suggest that Mexico's economy has different and less tense reactions to exchange rates and the price of oil than other countries described here in the last few days.
Mexican data are presented in Haver's EMERGELA database. As seen in the graph, the collection includes trade through the maquiladora mechanism; employment in maquiladoras is also contained in the database.
Mexico GDP (1993 New Pesos, % Change) |
Q4 2004 | Q3 2004 | Year/Year | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP* | 1.7 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
Manufacturing | 0.5 | -0.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
Trade & Tourism | 4.0 | 2.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Transportation & Communication | 1.5 | 2.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 |