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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance inched down another 2,000 to 302,000 last week, the lowest level since late 2000. The prior week's figure was revised up slightly and Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the February survey period for nonfarm payrolls and initial claims were 16,000 (5.0%) lower than the prior month.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 311,750 (-13.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 14,000 following a downwardly revised gain of 40,000 the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.1%, the lowest since 2001.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/12/05 | 02/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 302 | 304 | -13.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,717 | -15.9% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |