Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), IP & Capacity Utilization (Dec)
- Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- Canada: CPI (Dec), Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Dec)
- Germany: Hotel and Restaurant Turnover (Nov), Tax Revenues (Q3)
- Turkey: IIP, International Reserves, Foreign Trade Indexes (Nov)
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
- Colombia: Manufacturing IP, Retail Sales (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance inched down another 2,000 to 302,000 last week, the lowest level since late 2000. The prior week's figure was revised up slightly and Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the February survey period for nonfarm payrolls and initial claims were 16,000 (5.0%) lower than the prior month.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 311,750 (-13.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 14,000 following a downwardly revised gain of 40,000 the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.1%, the lowest since 2001.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/12/05 | 02/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 302 | 304 | -13.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,717 | -15.9% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
