Recent Updates
- Bangladesh: Wage Earners Remittances (Feb)
- Qatar: Producer Price Indexes (Jan)
- Brazil: Sao Paulo CPI (Feb), PPI (Jan)
- Cyprus: GDP (Q4)
- India: Trade (Feb-Prelim), CPI Industrial Workers
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2005
Import prices rose 0.9% last month due to a surprising 4.6% spurt in petroleum prices. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. Nonpetroleum prices, however, rose an easier 0.2% following a downwardly revised gain of 0.4% in December.
During the last ten years there has been a negative 55% correlation between the foreign exchange value of the dollar against major currencies and the y/y change in nonpetroleum import prices. There has been a negative 39% correlation between the broad trade weighted dollar index and prices.
Import pricing strength in January was pronounced for consumer goods less autos, up 0.4% (0.8% y/y). Capital goods prices rose a moderate 0.2% (-0.8% y/y) but that gain was held back by a 1.0% (-6.9% y/y) decline in computer prices. Excluding computers capital goods prices rose 0.8% (2.3% y/y), lifted by a 1.7% rise in prices for civilian aircraft. Motor vehicle and parts prices fell 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) and food & beverage prices fell 0.2% (+6.9% y/y).
Petroleum prices jumped 4.6%. The price of Brent crude oil rose to $43.55 in January and is up roughly another dollar this month.
Export prices rose 0.7% due to a 0.7% surge (5.1% y/y) in nonagricultural export prices.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 0.9% | -1.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | 4.6% | -11.5% | 26.9% | 30.4% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | 0.7% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |