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Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley February 15, 2005
Preliminary estimates of the growth of Gross Domestic Product in the Euro-Zone reveal a disappointing rise of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2004, about one-half of what the consensus was looking for. Not all of the twelve countries comprising the Euro Zone have reported. Among those that have, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands showed unexpected declines from the third to the fourth quarter of 0.23%, 0.31% and. 0.08%, respectively. Spain and France, on the contrary, reported increases of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.
For the year as a whole, growth in the Euro-Zone is estimated at about 1.6% compared with a growth of 4.4% for the U.S. Among the individual countries that have reported, Spain and France are estimated to have led the group with growth rates of 2.65% and 2.40%.The Netherlands, Italy and Germany are estimated to have risen 1.35%, 1.14% and 1.03%. The better performance of France over Germany over the past few years is shown in the first chart showing the quarterly changes in GDP in Germany and France.
Part of the cause of the relatively slow growth of the Euro-Zone over the last few years can be attributed to the rise in the euro and the high price of oil.These trends are shown in the second chart.
Gross Domestic Product % change Period to Period | Q1 04 | Q2 04 | Q3 04 | Q4 04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Germany | 0.49 | 0.35 | 0.02 | -0.23 | 1.03 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.99 |
France | 0.64 | 0.64 | -0.02 | 0.70 | 2.40 | 0.56 | 1.10 | 2.10 |
Italy | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.43 | -0.31 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 1.67 |
The Netherlands | 0.88 | -0.14 | 0.34 | -0.08 | 1.35 | -0.88 | 0.57 | 1.43 |
Spain | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.80 | 2.65 | 2.50 | 2.23 | 2.80 |
Euro-Zone | 0.64 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1.55 | 0.52 | 0.86 | 1.60 |
United States | 1.10 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 4.39 | 3.04 | 1.86 | 0.75 |