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Economy in Brief

Empire State Index Eased Again
by Tom Moeller February 15, 2005

The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York's manufacturing industries added another point in February to the seven point decline in January and fell to 19.19. The index has fallen twenty points from its level one year ago.

The new orders component fell for the fourth month in the last five and also is down twenty points from its peak. The employment measure fell to its lowest since late 2003. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.

The prices paid index eased modestly.

Expectations for business conditions in six months again fell for the fifth consecutive month to the lowest level since March 2003.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.

The Predictive Abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Feb Jan Feb '04 2004 2003 2002
General Business Conditions (diffusion index) 19.19 20.08 39.57 28.76 16.17 7.19
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