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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Up Further
by Tom Moeller February 15, 2005

Chain store sales inched up another 0.1% last week following the 2.2% spike the prior week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.

The rise lifted sales in early February 0.7% ahead of the January average which rose 0.9% from December.

During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.3% in early February (+0.7% y/y).

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 02/12/05 02/05/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 446.2 445.8 1.7% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6%
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