Recent Updates
- Bangladesh: Wage Earners Remittances (Feb)
- Qatar: Producer Price Indexes (Jan)
- Brazil: Sao Paulo CPI (Feb), PPI (Jan)
- Cyprus: GDP (Q4)
- India: Trade (Feb-Prelim), CPI Industrial Workers
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2005
The Leading Index of the Big 7 OECD economies nudged 0.1% higher in December after a revised 0.3% gain in November. The gains were the first after eight months of sideways movement. Perhaps more important, however, was that the six month growth rate in the index held at 0.8%. Though hardly indicative of a robust outlook, growth has been stable for three months at this upwardly revised level.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD and the change in the leading index.
The leaders for the 15 countries in the European Union hesitated, with the six month growth rate falling to 1.6%, it's weakest since mid-2003. The French leaders' growth rate fell to 2.1% from the high of 8.4% early in 2004 and growth in the leaders for Germany held at 2.2%, down from 8.7% a year ago. The leaders' growth in Italy was negative for the eighth consecutive month but the Spanish leading index improved handily to a 3.1% rate of growth versus zero in July.
The leaders for the Japanese economy continued moderate improvement to a 0.8% growth rate versus negative growth in September but the leaders for the UK economy went negative.
Growth in the leading index for the US economy gained 0.4% in December for the second month following three months of decline. Six month growth improved to 0.9% from a low of 0.1% in October due to higher share prices, improved consumer sentiment and higher durable goods orders.
Visit the OECD.
OECD Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
OECD | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Leading Index | 102.35 | 102.24 | 1.2% | 102.01 | 97.52 | 96.35 |
6 Month Growth Rate | 0.8% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% |