Recent Updates
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place by Region (Q4)
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- US: Public Debt (Feb), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Jan), Productivity & Costs with Revisions (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 4, 2021
• Gain in factory orders driven by durable goods.
• Shipments continue to strengthen.
• Order backlogs & inventories edge higher.
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January after improving 1.6% in December, revised from 1.1%. A 1.1% January increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Durable goods orders rose 3.4% (6.3% y/y), which was unrevised from last week's report. Transportation sector orders strengthened 7.7% (2.0% y/y) as nondefense aircraft orders surged. Electrical equipment & appliance orders gained 4.0% (8.8% y/y) but machinery orders eased 0.6% (+5.9% y/y). The full report on January durable goods activity is available here.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, surged 1.9% (-0.6% y/y) after rising 2.0% during December and 1.2% in November. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 7.6% (-14.5% y/y) in both January and December as oil prices continued to rise. Among other nondurable goods sectors, basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (5.2% y/y) while paper product shipments strengthened 1.9% (5.3% y/y). Textile mill shipments improved 2.3% (1.7% y/y) but apparel shipments declined 3.4% (-0.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods improved 1.9% in January (6.2% y/y) following a 2.1% December improvement. Transportation product shipments rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) as nondefense aircraft shipments jumped 20.1% (-8.6% y/y) after strengthening 42.7%. Shipments of computers & electronic products improved 1.0% (9.1% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products edged 0.1% higher in January (-0.4% y/y). Durable goods inventories fell 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories strengthened 0.7% (-1.5% y/y). The value of petroleum refinery inventories surged for the third straight month, up 7.0% (-12.9% y/y) while textile mill inventories eased 0.6% (-4.5% y/y). Food product inventories rose 0.3% (0.6% y/y) and basic chemical inventories edged 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y).
The value of unfilled orders improved 0.1% in January (-6.3% y/y) but had been falling since mid-2018. Unfilled orders in the transportation sector eased 0.1% (-11.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliances backlogs rose 1.2% (10.2% y/y) but commercial aircraft backlogs eased 0.5% (-16.3% y/y).
The factory sector figures and West Texas intermediate oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -6.7 | -0.1 | 6.8 |
Shipments | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 2.7 | -5.7 | 1.0 | 6.6 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -6.3 | -6.4 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
Inventories | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 2.8 | 3.6 |