Recent Updates
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index, Korea Inflation Expectations (Apr)
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Mar)
- US: New Res Sales (Mar), S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indexes, FHFA HPI (Feb), Final Building Permits (Mar)
- US: Steel Imports (Mar-Prelim)
- US: Richmond Fed Mfg & Service Sector Surveys (Apr)
- US: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- Belgium: Business Confidence (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Backtracks But Remains High-Valued As It Is for France and Germany
From Q1 2008 to date, Italian GDP actually has failed to grow and has declined by 5.8%...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller December 30, 2004
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell for the second consecutive month in December to 61.2, the lowest level since August. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.3.
During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.
The employment index reversed all of the gains of the prior four months and fell 11.7 points to 49.1, the first month below 50 since July. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders index also fell to the lowest level since August and during the last two months is off 14.9 points.
The index of prices paid eased moderately to 84.4. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Dec | Nov | Dec '03 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 61.2 | 65.2 | 61.2 | 62.9 | 54.7 | 52.7 |
New Orders | 64.5 | 70.0 | 66.1 | 67.1 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 84.4 | 89.8 | 57.3 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |