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Economy in Brief

The Holiday Spirit Found? Chain Store Sales Recover
by Tom Moeller December 14, 2004

Chain store sales recovered 1.2% during the first full week of December following two weeks of sharp decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

Despite the rise, sales so far in December are 1.9% below November.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC slipped another 0.2% in the latest week for the fourth decline in the last five.

During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 12/11/04 12/04/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 430.9 425.6 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1%
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