Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Dec- prelim), Employment Situation (Nov)
- Global Sector PMI (Nov)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Dec-prelim)
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Oct-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Accelerates
Consumer Credit Outstanding increased $18.90 billion (4.8% y/y during October...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Edge Up While Sales Slump
Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in October...
U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks as Imports Fall Sharply
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $47.20 billion during October...
U.S. Factory Sector Orders Increase; Inventory Growth Decelerates
Factory orders improved 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall to 7-Month Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 203,000 (-11.4% y/y) during the week ending November 30...
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2004
Total business inventories rose 0.2% in October following a downwardly revised, slight decline in September.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1%. During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Retail inventories fell another 0.6% as motor vehicle inventories fell sharply for the second consecutive month, down 2.3% (+7.9% y/y). Non-auto retail inventories advanced 0.3% but meaningful gains were limited to building materials (+15.7% y/y) and food (2.7% y/y). Elsewhere, inventories of furniture & home furnishings (+2.5% y/y) fell for the second consecutive month. Apparel inventories rose 0.1% (1.3% y/y) and general merchandise inventories fell 0.1% (+3.2% y/y).
Overall business sales surged 1.2% (+11.0% y/y) driven by the 1.2% spike in factory shipments (10.6% y/y).
The ratio of inventories-to-sales fell back to the historic low of 1.30.
| Business Inventories | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | -0.0% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | -4.5% |
| Retail | -0.6% | -0.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | -2.8% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.3% | 0.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | -1.1% |
| Wholesale | 1.1% | 0.6% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | -4.5% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 5.9% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
