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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rebounded in December
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2004

The University of Michigan's mid-month reading of consumer sentiment rebounded in December to 95.7, up 3.1% from November. Consensus expectations had expected 93.5.

During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

Consumer expectations index added 4.2% m/m to the 1.7% gain in November and the current economic conditions index rose 1.5% for the third consecutive monthly increase.

Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year fell slightly m/m but rose 2.0% y/y. Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year surged 9.5% m/m (5.3% y/y.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

"Consumer Sentiment and the Media" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

In advance of next week's FOMC meeting and also from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is this reminiscence of events 25 years ago titled "October 6, 1979" as well as "Gauging the Market's Expectations about Monetary Policy."

University of Michigan Mid-Dec Nov Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Sentiment 95.7 92.8 3.3% 87.6 89.6 89.2
   Current Conditions 106.3 104.7 9.6% 97.2 97.5 100.1
   Consumer Expectations 88.8 85.2 -1.1% 81.4 84.6 82.3
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