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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Slumped Further
by Tom Moeller December 7, 2004

Chain store sales following Thanksgiving week slumped another 1.7% on top of the 1.5% skid during the Holiday period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

The decline pulled November sales just 0.1% ahead of October and sales began December down 2.5% m/m.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell by 0.5% in the latest week for the third time in the last four periods.

During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 12/04/04 11/27/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 425.6 432.9 3.3% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1%
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