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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 7, 2004
Chain store sales following Thanksgiving week slumped another 1.7% on top of the 1.5% skid during the Holiday period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The decline pulled November sales just 0.1% ahead of October and sales began December down 2.5% m/m.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell by 0.5% in the latest week for the third time in the last four periods.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 12/04/04 | 11/27/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 425.6 | 432.9 | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
