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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell, Employment Strong
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2004

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.

The new orders index reversed nearly all of the October gain with a 9.4 point drop. Conversely, the employment index added 6.7 points to a slight October uptick and rose to the highest level since 1988. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices paid rose to 89.8. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA Nov Oct Nov '03 2003 2002 2001
Business Barometer 65.2 68.5 62.9 54.7 52.7 41.4
  New Orders 70.0 79.4 68.5 58.0 56.2 42.3
Prices Paid 89.8 84.1 68.1 55.8 56.9 50.4
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