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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Very Disappointing During Thanksgiving Week
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2004

Chain store sales during the pivotal Thanksgiving week slid 1.5% from the prior week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

The decline left sales so far in November just 0.4% ahead of October.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged after two weeks of 0.5% decline. The monthly average is up 0.1% from October which rose 0.4% from September.

During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/27/04 11/20/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 432.9 439.6 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1%
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