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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Recover
by Tom Moeller November 23, 2004

Last week, chain store sales recovered 0.8% following the prior week's 0.4% dip, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

Sales so far in November are 0.7% ahead of October.

Not so positive was the second consecutive 0.5% weekly decline in the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC. The monthly average is up just 0.2% from October which rose 0.4% from September.

During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

This 2001 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines "The Effect of Tax Changes on Consumer Spending".

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/20/04 11/13/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 439.6 436.1 3.9% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1%
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