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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Improved Sharply
by Tom Moeller November 23, 2004

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for October rose to 0.52 but the prior month's negative reading was deepened slightly. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI fell to the lowest level in nearly a year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

Chicago Fed Oct Sept Oct '03 2003 2002 2001
CFNAI 0.52 -0.04 0.19 -0.11 -0.40 -1.19
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