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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Off
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2004

Chain store sales fell 0.4% on the heels of the prior week's 1.3% surge, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

The decline left sales so far in November 0.5% ahead of October.

During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

Last week's sales decline was preceded by a 0.4% w/w fall in the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/13/04 11/06/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 436.1 438.0 3.4% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1%
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