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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovered Further
by Tom Moeller November 12, 2004

The University of Michigan's mid-month November consumer sentiment reading of 95.5 rose 4.1% m/m from October, adding to the improvement during October's second half. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 93.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

The consumer expectations index jumped 5.8% m/m (0.7% y/y) while the current economic conditions index rose 2.1% (3.6% y/y).

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

"Consumer Sentiment and the Media" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

University of Michigan Oct Sept Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Sentiment 91.7 94.2 2.3% 87.6 89.6 89.2
   Current Conditions 104.0 103.7 4.1% 97.2 97.5 100.1
   Consumer Expectations 83.8 88.0 1.0% 81.4 84.6 82.3
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