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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ticked Up
by Tom Moeller November 10, 2004

Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 2,000 to 333,000 following the sharp 19,000 decline the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 337,000 claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 336,000 (-11.2% y/y), the lowest level in four years.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 19,000 following a deepened 26,000 decline the prior week.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the fifth week.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 11/06/04 10/30/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Initial Claims 333 331 -10.5% 402 404 406
Continuing Claims -- 2,813 -18.8% 3,531 3,570 3,018
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