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Economy in Brief

US Consumers Went Shopping At Chain Stores
by Tom Moeller November 9, 2004

Last week, chain store sales jumped by 1.3% as consumer spending emerged from a three week skid which had pulled the October average 0.1% below September, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

The weekly increase was the largest since a 1.5% pop in late April and started the month 0.7% ahead of October.

During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

Last week's sales increase was preceded by a 1.1% w/w increase in the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/06/04 10/30/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales 438.0 432.4 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1%
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