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Economy in Brief

ISM Factory Index Slipped Unexpectedly
by Tom Moeller November 1, 2004

The Institute of Supply Management reported that its Purchasing Managers’ Composite Index (PMI) fell in October to 56.8 versus Consensus expectations for no change at 58.5.

During the last twenty years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.

The Composite Index reflected declines in each of the components except new orders. The employment index (54.8) dropped to the lowest since January and production cratered to the lowest in over a year.

The separate index of export orders rose sharply to 56.6, the highest level since June.

The prices paid index recouped much of the prior month's decline and rose to 78.5.

ISM Manufacturing Survey Oct Sept Oct '03 2003 2002 2001
Composite Index 56.8 58.5 57.1 53.3 52.4 43.9
  New Orders Index 58.3 58.1 64.6 58.1 56.6 46.1
Prices Paid Index (NSA) 78.5 76.0 58.5 59.6 57.6 42.9
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