Recent Updates

  • Estonia: Labor Statistics, Services PPI by Economic Activiy (Q3)
  • Finland: Trend Indicator of Output, Turnover (Sep), CPI (Oct)
  • China: IP, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, Real Estate Investment (Oct)
  • UK: RICS Housing Market Survey (Oct)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Highest Since 1988
by Tom Moeller October 29, 2004

The October Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer jumped 6.6 points from September to 68.5, just nosed out the prior high and was at the highest level since July 1988. Consensus expectations had been for a slight decline to 59.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.

The new orders index jumped to 79.4, the highest since 1983. The employment index rose slightly to 54.1, a five month high. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices paid remained firm at 84.1. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA Oct Sept Oct '03 2003 2002 2001
Business Barometer 68.5 61.9 55.8 54.7 52.7 41.4
  New Orders 79.4 69.7 61.6 58.0 56.2 42.3
Prices Paid 84.1 85.9 59.8 55.8 56.9 50.4
close
large image