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Economy in Brief

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose
by Tom Moeller October 28, 2004

Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week recouped most of the prior period's decline with a 20,000 rise to 350,000 following a 25,000 decline that was little revised. The Consensus expectation had been for 340,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 343,250 (-11.6% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 after sharp declines during five of the prior six weeks.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the third week.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 10/23/04 10/16/04 Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Initial Claims 350 330 -9.3% 402 404 406
Continuing Claims -- 2,823 -19.5% 3,531 3,570 3,018
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