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Economy in Brief

Nat'l Activity Index Negative: Chicago Fed
by Tom Moeller October 22, 2004

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell in September to the second negative reading in four months. Last month's level of -0.01 followed a downwardly revised figure in August.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI ticked up but was near the lowest level of the year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

Chicago Fed Sept Aug Sept '03 2003 2002 2001
CFNAI -0.01 0.03 0.38 -0.11 -0.40 -1.19
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