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by Tom Moeller October 19, 2004
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month. The gain matched Consensus forecasts, but the 0.3% rise in prices less food and energy exceeded the 0.2% expectation.
The CPI for "core" commodities rose for the first month in three, up 0.2%. The increase wholly reflected a rise in used motor vehicle prices. New vehicle prices fell 0.2% (-1.1% y/y). Household furnishings & operations prices were unchanged (-0.2% y/y) as were apparel prices (-0.7% y/y).
Services prices less energy rose a moderate 0.3%. Shelter prices, up 0.4% (3.0% y/y), health care services, up 0.3% (5.0% y/y), and education & communication prices, up 0.4% (1.7% y/y) all were relatively firm. Public transportation prices fell 1.1% (-2.8% y/y), the second consecutive down month.
Gasoline prices last month ticked up a modest 0.1% (+9.4% y/y) but in October have risen another 6.4% on average and were $2.04/gallon last week. Fuel oil prices were strong again with a 1.9% (23.9% y/y) rise. Natural gas prices fell 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) though they have recouped all of that decline in October.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose a firm 0.3%. It is similar to the PCE price deflator. The core chain price measure rose for the first time since April.
| Consumer Price Index | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -2.0% | -1.1% | 0.3% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Energy | -0.4% | -0.3% | 6.7% | 12.2% | -5.8% | 3.7% |
| Food | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
