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Economy in Brief
PMI Rebound Runs Out of Steam in October... Especially for Services
However, the longer view is clearly that an improving trend has been in place...
U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Softened in September
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% m/m (9.3% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Show Unexpected Strength in September
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes strengthened 7.0% ...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Backpedals in October
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index weakened roughly seven points...
U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Continued to Fall
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 293,000 (-64.8% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 19, 2004
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month. The gain matched Consensus forecasts, but the 0.3% rise in prices less food and energy exceeded the 0.2% expectation.
The CPI for "core" commodities rose for the first month in three, up 0.2%. The increase wholly reflected a rise in used motor vehicle prices. New vehicle prices fell 0.2% (-1.1% y/y). Household furnishings & operations prices were unchanged (-0.2% y/y) as were apparel prices (-0.7% y/y).
Services prices less energy rose a moderate 0.3%. Shelter prices, up 0.4% (3.0% y/y), health care services, up 0.3% (5.0% y/y), and education & communication prices, up 0.4% (1.7% y/y) all were relatively firm. Public transportation prices fell 1.1% (-2.8% y/y), the second consecutive down month.
Gasoline prices last month ticked up a modest 0.1% (+9.4% y/y) but in October have risen another 6.4% on average and were $2.04/gallon last week. Fuel oil prices were strong again with a 1.9% (23.9% y/y) rise. Natural gas prices fell 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) though they have recouped all of that decline in October.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose a firm 0.3%. It is similar to the PCE price deflator. The core chain price measure rose for the first time since April.
| Consumer Price Index | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -2.0% | -1.1% | 0.3% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Energy | -0.4% | -0.3% | 6.7% | 12.2% | -5.8% | 3.7% |
| Food | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
