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Economy in Brief

FY 2004 U.S. Budget Complete
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2004

The US budget deficit at $413B for FY 2004 came in slightly below the latest Congressional Budget Office estimate of $422. The latest CBO deficit estimate for FY05 is $348B.

For FY04 the deficit of $412.6B was 9.4% larger than a year earlier. According to the Fed's Flow of Funds figures, through 2Q04 the growth in outstanding liabilities of the Federal government grew 10.6% y/y versus 7.4% growth in nonfederal liabilities.

Growth in net receipts improved late in the fiscal year raising the year's growth to 5.5% versus a 3.8% decline in FY03. Individual tax receipts jumped in September, as they often do, and pulled the FY04 total up 1.9% versus a decline of 7.5% last year. Corporate tax receipts also surged in September and rose 43.7% in FY04.

Growth in Federal net expenditures for FY04 eased slightly to 6.2% versus 7.4% growth in FY03. Defense expenditures actually grew a lesser 12.7% versus 15.9% growth last year. Growth in Medicare outlays was stable at 8.0 and interest expense grew 4.8% versus a 10.5% decline during last year. Outlays for income security fell 0.4% after as 7.5% rise in FY03 and growth in education & training outlays slowed to 6.8% from 16.5%.

"The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update" from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.

US Government Finance Sept Aug Sept '03 FY2004 FY2003 FY2002
Budget Balance $24.4B $-41.1B $23.4B $-412.6B $-377.1B $-157.8B
  Revenues $207.4B $137.7B 8.2% 5.5% -3.8% -6.9%
  Outlays $183.0B $178.9B 8.8% 6.2% 7.4% 7.9%
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