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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Down
by Tom Moeller October 1, 2004

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September fell 1.8% versus August to 94.2, was below Consensus expectations for 96.0 and indicated slippage through the month.

During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

The reading of current economic conditions fell a sharp 3.9% to 103.7, near the low for the year. Consumer expectations fell just 0.2% but it was the second consecutive monthly decline.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

University of Michigan Sept Mid-Sept Aug Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Sentiment 94.2 95.8 95.9 7.4% 87.6 89.6 89.2
   Current Conditions 103.7 105.8 107.9 5.4% 97.2 97.5 100.1
   Consumer Expectations 88.0 89.4 88.2 8.9% 81.4 84.6 82.3
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