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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Down
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2004

The Conference Board’s September Index of Consumer Confidence slipped another 1.9% to 96.8 following a 6.6% decline in August that was revised slightly shallower versus the initial report. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 99.5.

During the last twenty years there has been a 50% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.

The present situation index fell sharply for the second month, by 5.2% (+60.0% y/y). The index of consumer expectations actually rose slightly m/m (+10.3% y/y).

Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 28.3% of respondents versus 26.0% in August and the low of 25.7% in July. The percentage of respondents expecting more jobs in six months improved modestly m/m.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board Sept Aug Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Confidence 96.8 98.7 25.7% 79.8 96.6 106.6
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