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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Lower in August
by Tom Moeller September 23, 2004

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell last month to 0.19 following a sharp improvement in July.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also fell to its lowest level of the year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

A recent speech by Fed Governor Edward M. Gramlich titled "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy" is available here.

Chicago Fed Aug July Aug '03 2003 2002 2001
CFNAI 0.19 0.53 -0.44 -0.11 -0.40 -1.19
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