Recent Updates

  • US: NABE Business Conditions Survey (Q3)
  • Japan: Help Wanted Advertisements (Sep)
  • Korea: Housing Price Survey Index (Oct)
  • Taiwan: TIER Business Outlooks (Sep)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Lower in August
by Tom Moeller September 23, 2004

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell last month to 0.19 following a sharp improvement in July.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also fell to its lowest level of the year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

A recent speech by Fed Governor Edward M. Gramlich titled "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy" is available here.

Chicago Fed Aug July Aug '03 2003 2002 2001
CFNAI 0.19 0.53 -0.44 -0.11 -0.40 -1.19
large image