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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Little Changed
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2004

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for mid-September was little changed from August at 95.8 but it was below Consensus expectations for 96.5.

During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

The expectations sub-index improved slightly to 89.4 but the index of current economic conditions eased to 105.8.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

University of Michigan Mid-Sept Aug Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Sentiment 95.8 95.9 9.2% 87.6 89.6 89.2
   Current Conditions 105.8 107.9 7.5% 97.2 97.5 100.1
   Consumer Expectations 89.4 88.2 10.6% 81.4 84.6 82.3
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