Recent Updates
- US: NABE Business Conditions Survey (Q3)
- Japan: Help Wanted Advertisements (Sep)
- Korea: Housing Price Survey Index (Oct)
- Taiwan: TIER Business Outlooks (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
PMI Rebound Runs Out of Steam in October... Especially for Services
However, the longer view is clearly that an improving trend has been in place...
U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Softened in September
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% m/m (9.3% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Show Unexpected Strength in September
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes strengthened 7.0% ...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Backpedals in October
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index weakened roughly seven points...
U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Continued to Fall
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 293,000 (-64.8% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2004
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for mid-September was little changed from August at 95.8 but it was below Consensus expectations for 96.5.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The expectations sub-index improved slightly to 89.4 but the index of current economic conditions eased to 105.8.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Mid-Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 95.8 | 95.9 | 9.2% | 87.6 | 89.6 | 89.2 |
| Current Conditions | 105.8 | 107.9 | 7.5% | 97.2 | 97.5 | 100.1 |
| Consumer Expectations | 89.4 | 88.2 | 10.6% | 81.4 | 84.6 | 82.3 |
