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Economy in Brief
NABE Projections for Moderate Growth and Inflation Are Little Revised
The National Association for Business Economics expectations of 1.8% growth in real GDP during 2020...
German Trade Data Tell a Tale of Two Germanys
Germany's October trade report is better than expected...
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Growth Rebounds; Wages Firm & Jobless Rate Eases
The labor market firmed during November...
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Accelerates
Consumer Credit Outstanding increased $18.90 billion (4.8% y/y during October...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Edge Up While Sales Slump
Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in October...
by Tom Moeller August 13, 2004
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for mid-August fell unexpectedly to 94.0 from 96.7 in July. Consensus expectations had been for a rise to 98.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The expectations sub-index fell to 84.7, the lowest level since May. The index of current economic conditions rose to 108.4, its level since January.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Mid-Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 94.0 | 96.7 | 5.3% | 87.6 | 89.6 | 89.2 |
| Current Conditions | 108.4 | 105.2 | 8.7% | 97.2 | 97.5 | 100.1 |
| Consumer Expectations | 84.7 | 91.2 | 2.7% | 81.4 | 84.6 | 82.3 |
