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Economy in Brief

ISM Factory Index Recovered in July
by Tom Moeller August 2, 2004

The Purchasing Managers’ Composite Index (PMI) for July, released by the Institute of Supply Management, rose to 62.0. The figure recovered most of the prior month's decline to 61.1 from 62.8 in May and matched Consensus expectations for a reading of 62.0.

During the last twenty years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.

Improvement in production (66.1) and new orders (64.7) led the composite index higher though the separate index of export orders fell for the fourth consecutive month.

These gains were offset by a decline in the employment index (57.3) to the lowest level since March. The vendor deliveries (64.2) and the inventories (49.9) indexes also fell.

The prices paid index eased for the third straight month to the lowest level since January.

ISM Manufacturing Survey July June July '03 2003 2002 2001
Composite Index 62.0 61.1 52.6 53.3 52.4 43.9
  New Orders Index 64.7 60.0 57.6 58.1 56.6 46.1
Prices Paid Index (NSA) 77.0 81.0 53.0 59.6 57.6 42.9
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