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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Up
by Tom Moeller July 30, 2004

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July improved to 96.7 versus the mid-month read of 96.0 and from95.6 in June. Consensus expectations had been for 96.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

The expectations sub-index rose to 91.2 versus 90.4 mid-month and 88.5 in June. The index of current economic conditions at 105.2 was a lesser 1.4% decline versus June than the 2.0% dip reported mid-month.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

University of Michigan July June Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Sentiment 96.7 95.6 6.4% 87.6 89.6 89.2
   Current Conditions 105.2 106.7 3.0% 97.2 97.5 100.1
   Consumer Expectations 91.2 88.5 9.0% 81.4 84.6 82.3
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