Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Dec- prelim), Employment Situation (Nov)
- Global Sector PMI (Nov)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Dec-prelim)
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Oct-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Accelerates
Consumer Credit Outstanding increased $18.90 billion (4.8% y/y during October...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Edge Up While Sales Slump
Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in October...
U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks as Imports Fall Sharply
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $47.20 billion during October...
U.S. Factory Sector Orders Increase; Inventory Growth Decelerates
Factory orders improved 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall to 7-Month Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 203,000 (-11.4% y/y) during the week ending November 30...
by Tom Moeller July 8, 2004
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell sharply last week to 310,000 versus the prior week of 349,000 claims which was revised down. Consensus expectations had been for 340,000 claims.
The decline in claims may have been exaggerated by errant seasonal seasonal adjustment factors which anticipated the regular layoff of autoworkers due to assembly plant closings to prepare for the new model year. Closings this year likely will begin this week. Unadjusted initial claims rose 32,700 in the latest week after falling 4,100 the prior period.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 336,000 (-20.0% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 85,000 following a 5,000 increase the prior week which was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.3% for the fifth straight week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 7/03/04 | 6/26/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 310 | 349 | -27.4% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,872 | -22.4% | 3,533 | 3,573 | 3,023 |
