Recent Updates

  • Finland: Trend Indicator of Output, Turnover (Sep)
  • Estonia: Labor Statistics (Q3)
  • China: IP, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, Real Estate Investment (Oct)
  • UK: RICS Housing Market Survey (Oct)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

French Business Turns More Confident on Production Trends, but a Growing Proportion Predict Rising Prices
by Louise Curley June 29, 2004

INSEE's (Institute Nationale de la Statistiques et les Etudes Economique) composite indicator of French business confidence for June rose to April's three year high of 105 after having declined to 104 in May.

Although the overall measure of confidence has risen almost steadily since June of 2003, expectations of improving production trends for business in general and business in manufacturing in particular faltered in February, March and April of this year and have only improved in May and June. Even with the improvement, the balance of those expecting improved production trends is still negative, although only slightly so.

Expectations regarding the inflation outlook have changed significantly . Those expecting prices to decline outweighed those expecting prices to increase for much of 2003. The reverse has been true since December of last year. In June, the balance of businessmen in manufacturing expecting prices to rise over those expecting a decline was up to 23, compared with -3 in December.

Indicators of Business Confidence and Expectations Jun 04 May 04 Jun  03 M/M
 Point Chg.
Y/Y 
Point Chg.
 
2003  2002    2001 
Composite 105 104 90 1 15 95 97 102
Percent Balance                
Total Industry                
  Production Trend -2 -5 -34 3 32 -29 -22 -23
  Price Trend 22 19 -17 3 39 -7 3 12
Manufacturing                
  Production Trend -3 -5 -35 2 38 -29 -24 -24
  Price Trend 23 19 -5 4 41 -8 2 11
close
large image