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Economy in Brief

German Industrial Production Rises in November:  Export Demand Not Consumer Demand is the Catalyst
by Louise Curley January 12, 2004

German industrial production rose 1.33% in November after a revised 2.8% rise in October.(Unrevised figure was 2.4%). This is the first time two successive month to month increases were recorded since early 2002.

In spite of the rising Euro, it appears that export demand is fueling the rise in production rather than domestic demand. Reflecting the rises in actual exports and new orders for exports, capital goods production was up 4.03% in November and 5.42% above November, 2002. In contrast, production of consumer goods fell 0.88% in November and was 2.98% below November 2002. Retail sales have shown no consistently positive trend over the past two years and preliminary estimates for December sales are discouraging.

  Nov 03 Oct 03 Nov 02 M/M 
%
Y/Y 
%
2002 2001 2000
Industrial Production 1995=100l 114.6 113.1 113.4 1.33 1.06 111.8 1113.3 113.4
  Capital Goods 141.9 136.4 134.6 4.03 5.42 131.1 134.5 130.8
  Consumer Goods 100.8 101.7 103.9 -0.88 -2.98 103.6 105.3 105.6
New Orders 2000=100 101.8 101.2 100.4 0.59 1.39 98.3 98.3 100.0
  Domestic 97.6 97.2 95.5 0.41 2.20 94.6 97.6 100.0
  Export 107.0 106.2 106.5 0.75 0.47 102.8 99.1 100.0
Exports Bil. Euros (Moving Average) 56.42 54.19 55.89 4.12 0.95 54.52 53.42 49.71
Retail Sales 2000=100 100.2 101.3 100.1 -1.09 -0.79 101.3 102.1 100.0
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