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Viewpoints Archive

August 2022
09   Recent Divergence Runs The Opposite; Household Employment Gains Outpace Payroll (Joseph G. Carson)
02   Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints (Peter D'Antonio)

July 2022
28   Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
27   State Coincident Indexes in June 2022 (Charles Steindel)
22   State Labor Markets in June 2022 (Charles Steindel)
20   No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output (Joseph G. Carson)
14   The Over-shooting Dollar and Some Implications (Andrew Cates)
08   The June Employment Report Says the Fed "Job" of Reversing Inflation in the Economy Is Far From Done (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Mid-Summer Stagflation Update (Andrew Cates)

June 2022
30   State GDP in 2022:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
29   State Coincident Indexes in May 2022 (Charles Steindel)
28   The "Income" Consequences of the Fed's Inflation Fight: The Main Reason Recession Risks Is High (Joseph G. Carson)
27   Fed, First Do No Harm (Paul L. Kasriel)
22   State Personal Income in Q1 2022 (Charles Steindel)
17   State Labor Markets in May 2022 (Charles Steindel)
16   A More Challenging Consensus (Andrew Cates)
07   Peak Inflation Is Hollow: It Provides No Context to Reduction in Speed or Duration of Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2022
27   The Blame Game (Andrew Cates)
25   State Coincident Indexes in April 2022 (Charles Steindel)
20   State Labor Markets in April 2022 (Charles Steindel)
18   Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
16   The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years? (Paul L. Kasriel)
02   "Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022 (Paul L. Kasriel)

April 2022
29   The Fed's GDP Price & Spending Bubble (Joseph G. Carson)
28   Some Global Inflation Perspectives (Andrew Cates)
22   Some Techno-Optimism (Andrew Cates)
21   State Coincident Indexes in March 2022 (Charles Steindel)
15   State Labor Markets in March 2022 (Charles Steindel)
14   The Truth About The Current Inflation Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Investors Beware: Decades-High Profit Margins Will Fall Hard As Inflation Cycle Ends (Joseph G. Carson)
06   Commodities, Shipping Costs, Inflation and Yields (Andrew Cates)
05   State Coincident Indexes in February 2022 (Charles Steindel)
05   Curve Inversion At Low Levels of Interest Rates Is Problematic For the Fed & Finance Not the Economy (Joseph G. Carson)

March 2022
31   State GDP in 2021:Q4 (Charles Steindel)
28   Trouble Ahead: Fed Policy on a Preset Course to Fail (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Labor Markets in February 2022 (Charles Steindel)
25   Does the Consensus Add Up? (Andrew Cates)
24   SNL Fireside Chat With Paul Volcker and Jerome Powell (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Personal Income in Q4 2021 (Charles Steindel)
21   The Fed's Biggest Inflation Problem: Record Surge in Equity Asset Prices (Joseph G. Carson)
15   Crumbs of Comfort in Productivity Trends (Andrew Cates)
14   State Labor Markets in January 2022 (Charles Steindel)
14   Households' Extraordinary Cash Holdings Will Thwart Fed Tightening (Paul L. Kasriel)
11   More Stressed and Under-confident (Andrew Cates)
10   Fed's Decision: "Go Slow" or "Go Bold"? (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Manufacturer's Buying Policy Signal Firms Are Expecting Persistent Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Monitoring the Impact of the Russian/Ukraine Conflict (Andrew Cates)
01   Hong Kong Budget 2022/23: Beyond the Sweeteners (Kelvin Lam)

February 2022
23   Conflicting Supply Side Messages and Ukraine (Andrew Cates)
22   The Fed's Problem: "It's All About The Money" (Joseph G. Carson)
18   Fed Tightening Will Have a Fiscal Effect (Paul L. Kasriel)
15   The Fed Is Mistaken: It's the Removal of Inflation That Is Destabilizing, Not Late Policy Move (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Does the Fed Still Believe in the Efficacy of Monetary Policy? (Joseph G. Carson)
08   Demand or Supply? That Is the Question! (Andrew Cates)

January 2022
31   State Coincident Indexes in December 2021 (Charles Steindel)
31   Questions About The Accuracy of Q4 ECI Data (Joseph G. Carson)
28   Peak Time (Andrew Cates)
27   What Would The "Old Fed" Do Today? (Joseph G. Carson)
26   State Labor Markets in December 2021 (Charles Steindel)
25   Fed's Huge Problem: Main Street Does Not Believe The Fed's & Wall Street's Inflation Forecasts (Joseph G. Carson)
17   Easy Money Contributed As Much To 2021 "Actual" Inflation As Supply Shortages Did To "Reported" (Joseph G. Carson)
13   What's the Consensus Call? (Andrew Cates)
11   Blunders By Fed Spells Trouble For Risk-Assets (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2021
23   State Coincident Indexes in November 2021 (Charles Steindel)
23   State GDP in 2021:Q3 (Charles Steindel)
22   Five Reasons to Be Cheerful (Andrew Cates)
21   Festivus 2021 – I Got a Lot of Problems with You People (Paul L. Kasriel)
17   State Personal Income in Q3 2021 (Charles Steindel)
17   State Labor Markets in November 2021 (Charles Steindel)
16   The Year Ahead (Andrew Cates)
16   What Is Maximum Employment? Whatever It Is The Current Labor Market Is Well Beyond Maximum (Joseph G. Carson)
13   The Next Catalyst for Inflation: Significant and Persistent Increases in Labor Costs (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Record Increase in Broad Price Index Spells Trouble Ahead for the Economy & the Markets (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2021
30   Assessing the Omens from Omicron (Andrew Cates)
29   The "Everything" Inflation Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
17   Global Growth Outlook Checked by Higher Inflation (Andrew Cates)
16   On Inflation: 6 is Really 10 & the Causes and Symptoms Are Similar to the 70s (Joseph G. Carson)
09   Another Fed Misread: Inflation Cycles Are Not Static; They Rotate and Broaden (Joseph G. Carson)
02   When Companies Talk, The Fed Should Listen (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2021
26   The Misread of Labor Market Conditions and The Misuse of Monetary Policy Tools (Joseph G. Carson)
25   Helicopter Money + Negative Supply Shock = Higher Inflation (Paul L. Kasriel)
22   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
18   The Misrepresented and Misunderstood Inflation Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)
14   Labor Market Data Are Not "Dismal" (Joseph G. Carson)
13   The Fed Giveth and the Fed Taketh Away, Reserves (Paul L. Kasriel)
07   4 Key Questions for Q4 (Andrew Cates)

September 2021
29   Emerging Market Challenges (Andrew Cates)
23   State Personal Income in Q2 2021 (Charles Steindel)
17   State Labor Markets Cool Off in August (Charles Steindel)
17   Transitory Inflation, for Now! (Andrew Cates)
07   Analysis of the August Employment Report – An Econ 101 Quiz (Paul L. Kasriel)
07   Negative Growth Surprises Ought to Calm Inflation Fears (Andrew Cates)

August 2021
27   Fed Chair Powell's Taper Talk Is Much Ado About Nothing (Paul L. Kasriel)
20   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
20   Post-Pandemic Productivity Promises (Andrew Cates)
12   Seeking Alternative Company (Andrew Cates)
02   If Second Quarter Real GDP Growth "Disappointed", It Wasn't for Lack of Demand (Paul L. Kasriel)

July 2021
30   The Surge in Nominal GDP & Inflation Indicate An Unstable Monetary Background (Joseph G. Carson)
29   The Return to Normal (Andrew Cates)
26   Powell vs. Greenspan: Who's Right? "Hands-Off" or "Hands-On" Policy to Confront Cyclical Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
23   Beware of the Delta (Andrew Cates)
21   State Coincident Indexes in June (Charles Steindel)
16   State Labor Markets Improve Somewhat in June (Charles Steindel)
16   The Fed's "Inflation Bubble" (Joseph G. Carson)
15   As Good As It Gets? (Andrew Cates)
13   Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction (Joseph G. Carson)
09   Inflation Bombshell: A Market-Based PCE House Rent Measure May Be Coming (Joseph G. Carson)
06   Has the Fed Begun a Stealth Tapering/Tightening? (Paul L. Kasriel)

June 2021
29   State Coincident Indexes in May (Charles Steindel)
28   Six Lessons from 2021 H1 (Andrew Cates)
25   State GDP in 2021:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
23   Inflation Cycles Create Their Own Sustainability (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Labor Markets Modestly Firmer in May (Charles Steindel)
22   State Personal Income in Q1 2021 (Charles Steindel)
17   Fed Is Promoting A Public Perception of Inflation That Is False--- Fed Admits It In New Forecasts (Joseph G. Carson)
14   It Is Different This Time, That Is, From The Last Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
11   Today's Consumer Inflation Cycle Comes With Yesteryear Denial, Problems & Consequences (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Vaccines, Capex and China Now Hold the Key (Andrew Cates)
03   Record Lead-Times For Materials Signal Firms Are Expecting Persistent Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
01   A Margin Story: Fast Economic Growth Without Profits (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2021
27   The Inflation Debate Is Full of Surprises (Andrew Cates)
27   Two Profit Measures & Two Different Stories: GDP Profits Are Unchanged, While S&P Profits Soar (Joseph G. Carson)
26   State Coincident Indexes in April (Charles Steindel)
21   State Labor Markets in April (Charles Steindel)
20   The Case Against An Inflation Surge (Andrew Cates)
19   Consumer Price Inflation - It's More Than Used Car Prices (Paul L. Kasriel)
17   Fed Is Promoting A Public Perception of Inflation That is False----Bad Outcomes Follow Bad Policies (Joseph G. Carson)
12   Biggest Rise In Consumer Prices In More Than A Decade Is Understated By Half (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Global Ripple Effects from US Policy Stimulus (Andrew Cates)
03   The Fed's "Base-Effect" Inflation Argument Is Nonsense (Joseph G. Carson)

April 2021
30   To Sustain the Economic Cycle, The Fed Must Shift The Focus To Financial Outcomes (Joseph G. Carson)
26   Houses on Fire: 2021 Price Increases Exceed Those of 1979 (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Coincident Indexes in March (Charles Steindel)
21   The Power of Surprises (Andrew Cates)
21   Asset Bubbles: The Danger of Anchoring Reported Inflation To A Non-Market Price (Joseph G. Carson)
16   State Labor Markets in March (Charles Steindel)
16   Fed's Inflation Problem: Easy Money Creates More Market Than Reported Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
14   A Rising Tide Isn't Yet Lifting All Boats (Andrew Cates)
12   Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust (Joseph G. Carson)
02   State Coincident Indexes in January (Charles Steindel)

March 2021
30   Data Surprises, Markets and COVID (Andrew Cates)
30   "Missing Prices": Half of the CPI Is Based on Imputations (Joseph G. Carson)
26   State GDP in 2020:Q4 (Charles Steindel)
26   State Labor Markets in February (Charles Steindel)
24   Consumer Price Inflation Is a Lagging Process with a Long Lag (Paul L. Kasriel)
24   State Personal Income in Q4 2020 (Charles Steindel)
19   The Fed's Dot Game: "Something Missing" (Joseph G. Carson)
17   What Have We Learned So Far This Year? (Andrew Cates)
15   State Labor Markets in January (Charles Steindel)
15   Will History Repeat? Household Portfolios Are Oversized, Unbalanced & Vulnerable (Joseph G. Carson)
10   Fact vs. Fiction: Understatement of Housing Inflation Exceeds "Bubble" Levels (Joseph G. Carson)
08   Climbing the Wall of Worry (Andrew Cates)
04   Super Fast Commodity Price Cycle Is A Harbinger Of Sudden Jump In Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Inflation Fears Are Probably Over-stated (Andrew Cates)
01   Pioneer of the Inflation Targeting Adds Asset Prices to Its Framework, While The Fed Adds More Fuel (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2021
22   Conversation With BLS About Price Mismeasurement For Housing (Joseph G. Carson)
19   Vaccination and Adaptation (Andrew Cates)
12   Heading the Right Way (Andrew Cates)
04   Fiscal Stimulus: How Much Is Too Much? Boom/Bust! (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Economic Performance Has Been OK Despite Difficult Headlines (Andrew Cates)

January 2021
26   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
26   Positive Scarring (Andrew Cates)
26   Two Decades of Price Mismeasurement & Policy Confusion (Joseph G. Carson)
25   Treasury Deficits/Debt – I Report, You Decide (Paul L. Kasriel)
19   This Is Not A Recovery: Lessons From 1980 (Joseph G. Carson)
13   Remote Working Limited the Economic Fallout In 2020, And Its Reversal Will Spur Growth In 2021 (Joseph G. Carson)
12   Some Reasons To Be Cheerful (Andrew Cates)

December 2020
30   2021 Could Be The Opposite of 2020: Economy Up & Equity Markets Down (Joseph G. Carson)
24   State Coincident Indexes in November (Charles Steindel)
24   State GDP in 2020:Q3 (Charles Steindel)
22   Festivus 2020 – I Got a Lot of Problems with You People (Paul L. Kasriel)
18   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
18   Good Riddance 2020! (Andrew Cates)
17   Plunge In Retail Sales Shows Vulnerable Consumer: Personal Savings Rate Is Overstated (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Personal Income in Q3 2020 (Charles Steindel)
14   Federal Taxes Paint Grim Picture on the Economy: Congress Should Take Notice (Joseph G. Carson)
09   Mr. Magoo's Bull Market: Investors Pay More For Growth & Worry Less About Debt (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2020
27   "Actual" Inflation Is Rising During The Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes in October (Charles Steindel)
24   The Light at the End of the Tunnel (Andrew Cates)
20   Unique Recession & Unusual Policies Create Uncertain Economic Outlook (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
16   Something Missing: Federal Income Taxes Are Missing the Rebound in Jobs & Income (Joseph G. Carson)
13   A Vaccine Game Changer And What It Might Mean (Andrew Cates)
02   Are Investors Prepared For A "Watershed" Election Outcome & A Rebirth of Federal Activism? (Joseph G. Carson)
02   The Second Wave Slowdown (Andrew Cates)

October 2020
29   A Unique Business Downturn & Environment: It's All About The Service Industries (Joseph G. Carson)
28   State Coincident Indexes in September (Charles Steindel)
26   Why Can't the Fed Raise the Inflation Rate? Why Would It Want To? (Paul L. Kasriel)
20   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
19   The Employment Data And Tax Receipts Don't Compute (Joseph G. Carson)
15   So What Now? (Andrew Cates)
13   Taxpayers Could Have Been Saved $674 Billion and Had the Covid Spread Curbed (Paul L. Kasriel)
08   Inflation Measures Are Meaningless Without House Prices: But Their Use Produces Huge Distortions (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Emerging Markets and COVID-19 (Andrew Cates)
02   State GDP in 2020:Q2 (Charles Steindel)
01   Employment Data: What Accounts for the Big Gap Between ADP and the Official Jobs Data? (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Retail Sales (August 2020): Retail Sales Fall at Milder Pace in August (Kelvin Lam)

September 2020
29   State Coincident Indexes in August (Charles Steindel)
28   Households Saving for a Rainier Day and Corporations Making Hay while the Sun Shines (Paul L. Kasriel)
25   Two Steps Forward, One Step Back (Andrew Cates)
24   State Personal Income in Q2 2020 (Charles Steindel)
18   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
18   Hong Kong Unemployment (August 2020): Labor Market Remains Feeble in the Short Run (Kelvin Lam)
17   Retail Spending & Tax Data: Two Reasons Why The Administration Decided To Go Big On Another Stimulus (Joseph G. Carson)
14   Liquidity Boom Fueled By Record Stimulus Has Ended: Equity Market Most Vulnerable (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Hard Times and Great Expectations (Andrew Cates)
08   "Averaging" Inflation Does Not Eliminate The Flaws In The Fed's Policy Approach; It Compounds Them (Joseph G. Carson)
02   2020 Drop In Operating Profits Mirrors 2008: Different Mix Shows The Need For More Fiscal Support (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2020
28   "Buying" More Inflation Is A Policy Mistake (Joseph G. Carson)
27   Asia's De-globalisation Nightmare and Covid-19 (Andrew Cates)
26   State Coincident Indexes in July (Charles Steindel)
26   Earth To Fed: Inflation Mandate Has Been Met (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
20   Taking Away the "Punch Bowl": Risk of Hard Landing in Consumer Spending (Joseph G. Carson)
19   Ramblings of a Congenital Pessimist (Paul L. Kasriel)
17   New Normal In Consumer Spending: Spending On Goods Up & Services Down (Joseph G. Carson)
13   Huge Holes in Europe with Limited Capacity to Climb Out Fast (Andrew Cates)
12   Failure to Reach Deal on Federal Stimulus Plan Risks Consumer Spending Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
10   Chaos In Governing During A Crisis Creates More Problems Than It Solves (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Global PMIs- A Rebound and a Fun-House Mirror Trick (Robert Brusca)
03   Second Quarter Government Transfer Payments Likely Took the Edge Off Covid-19 (Paul L. Kasriel)

July 2020
30   Biggest Decline in Nominal Output & Income In Our Lifetime (Joseph G. Carson)
24   2020 Is The Most Overvalued Equity Market In Our Lifetime (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Coincident Indexes in June (Charles Steindel)
21   Is It a V, U, or L? (Andrew Cates and Sandy Batten)
20   Pandemic-Driven Recession Is Not Over (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
16   EMU Trade Surplus Is Back in Style (Robert Brusca)
13   Japan's Tertiary Sector Weakens (Robert Brusca)
10   Q2 Federal Withheld Income Tax Receipts Plunge A Record 25% From Year Ago Levels (Joseph G. Carson)
07   UK Still Travelling in the Slow Lane (Andrew Cates)
07   State GDP in 2020:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
02   The Economic "Bounce" Is In: What's Next? (Joseph G. Carson)

June 2020
30   China's Manufacturing PMI Shows Resilience But Not a Hint of Strength (Robert Brusca)
26   State Coincident Indexes in May (Charles Steindel)
25   U.K. Retailing Continues to Reel Along with Global Prospects (Robert Brusca)
25   Some Relief for Europe But Not Much (Andrew Cates)
23   The Federal Reserve's Debt Problem (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Personal Income in Q1 2020 (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in May (Charles Steindel)
16   BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Part 2) (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Federal Tax Receipts Show A Record Plunge in May: Raising More Doubts About the Employment Data (Joseph G. Carson)
10   Taking the Temperature with Non-traditional Data (Andrew Cates)
08   Response to: BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Gerald D. Cohen)
08   BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Bombshell---Jobless Rate Falls Even As Millions More File Jobless Claims (Joseph G. Carson)
02   ISM Surveys of Manufacturing: Sharp Contraction Underway & No Sign of Recovery (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2020
27   State Coincident Indexes in April (Charles Steindel)
26   Our Exploding National Debt – How Will It Be Managed Post-Covid? (Paul L. Kasriel)
26   Something's Wrong: A Debt-Financed Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
22   State Labor Markets in April (Charles Steindel)
14   Uh-Oh!: Record Drop in Taxes Signal Deep Consumer Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
04   ISM April's New Order & Production Crash (Joseph G. Carson)
01   An Employment Report Like No Other (Peter D'Antonio)

April 2020
30   The Explosion of the Fed's and Banks' Balance Sheets: Not Inflationary, Yet (Paul L. Kasriel)
30   30 For 30: 30 Million Jobless Claims vs. 30% Gain in Equity Prices (Joseph G. Carson)
23   Focus Should be on COVID-19 Active Cases, Not Confirmed Cases (Peter D'Antonio)
22   State Coincident Indexes in March (Charles Steindel)
20   The "Best" Economy: Not Before, Nor After Coronavirus (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in March (Charles Steindel)
13   Does Encouraging OPEC to Cut Production Help Keep America Great? (Paul L. Kasriel)
13   Lessons from the 1980 "Inflation" Virus: Transmission Chain Needs to Be Broken for Successful Outcome (Joseph G. Carson)
10   State Coincident Indexes in February (Charles Steindel)
06   Massive Disruption in Labor Markets (Joseph G. Carson)
02   State Coincident Indexes in January (Charles Steindel)

March 2020
27   State Labor Markets in February (Charles Steindel)
26   "Deja Vu"--"Destroying the Economy By Trying to Save It" (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   Corona Clobbers PMIs; It's Here! Are YOU Next? (Robert Brusca)
17   A "Primer" on Recession: Post Recession Business & Finance Will Be Different (Joseph G. Carson)
16   State Labor Markets in January (Charles Steindel)
13   Investors Should Brace For A Record Decline In GDP (Joseph G. Carson)
05   COVID-19 – The Fed Can’t Cure What Ails You (Paul L. Kasriel)
03   Unstable Balance Between Finance & Economy Contributed to Equity Market Decline (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2020
21   "Deja Vu": Companies Don't Account For All Costs To Make Financial Results Appear Better (Joseph G. Carson)
12   Fed's Price Targeting Regime: Suggested Changes Fail to Fix the #1 Flaw--The Price Gauge (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Roadmap For 2020 Profits Is Filled With Potholes (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Greatest Economic Performance Ever? I Report, You Decide (Paul L. Kasriel)

January 2020
30   The Role of Monetary & Fiscal Policies In Equity Market Cycles (Joseph G. Carson)
29   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
22   Monetary Policy & Business Cycle Scripts Have Changed: Fed Policy Stimulates Finance Over Spending (Joseph G. Carson)
13   December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight (Joseph G. Carson)
10   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
09   The "Real" Phillips Curve Is Not Flat (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Two Equity Market Booms, Two Policy Paths (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2019
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
23   Festivus 2019 – I Got A Lot of Problems With You People About Wages! (Paul L. Kasriel)
20   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
19   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
13   GDP by County (Charles Steindel)
12   Profit "Inequality"---- Is It Possible That S&P 500 Companies Make Money & No One Else Does? (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2019
25   Just in Time, the Fed Found Easing Just in Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
25   "Financialization": A New Feature & Risk of Monetary Policy (Joseph G. Carson)
22   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
12   Monetary Policy Is Not in A "Good" Place (Joseph G. Carson)
07   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
04   Fed's Insurance Rate Cuts Don't Eliminate Risks They Create New Ones (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2019
31   The Fed to Banks: Why Don't You Just Tell Us How Many Reserves You Need? (Paul L. Kasriel)
30   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
30   A Fiscal Policy "Flop" (Joseph G. Carson)
28   Decade of Record Deficits & A Vulnerable Business Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)
21   The State of the Consumer: Views From Retail & Banks (Joseph G. Carson)
18   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
14   Trade Negotiations – US Agrees To A Farm Package, Not Trade Deal With China (Joseph G. Carson)
11   A Policy Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Payroll Data & Business Surveys Indicate Hiring Slump, Weak Growth And Profit Decline (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Consumer Spending by State (Charles Steindel)

September 2019
30   "Solving" The Profits Puzzle (Joseph G. Carson)
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   The Profits Puzzle (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
03   US Purchasing Managers "Recession" Warning---- Few Firms Report Gains in Orders and Production (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2019
29   Corporate Profits--- Long Slide Has Preceded Recessions in Years Past (Joseph G. Carson)
28   China, Please Stop Selling US Goods at Prices Less Than We Can Produce Them (Paul L. Kasriel)
26   If Some Bloomberg TV Guest Pundits Were Weather Forecasters....(Paul L. Kasriel)
21   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   Bilateral Trade Balances – Whack-A-Mole? (Paul L. Kasriel)
16   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
13   Recession and the Signal from the Treasury Yield Curve (Joseph G. Carson)
07   The Federal Budget--- "Unbalanced" Forever? (Joseph G. Carson)
05   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)

July 2019
26   The "Truth" on Profits – No Gain in Operating Earnings for the Past 5 Years (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State GDP in 2019:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
22   Demise of Phillips Curve Shifts Focus to Asset Cycles and Financial Stability (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
12   Preemptive or Bubble-Making Monetary Policy (Joseph G. Carson)
09   US Equity Market: An "Oasis" of Hope (Joseph G. Carson)
05   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)

June 2019
26   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   The Fed's "Gamble" (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in May (Charles Steindel)
17   Investors Are Overlooking One (Big) Thing: "Profits" (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Is The Fed At Risk of Repeating the Mistakes of the Past? (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Monetary Policy at a Crossroad--Testing the Limits of the Fed's Financial Engineering (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2019
31   A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror (Paul L. Kasriel)
28   Real Income by State and MSA: 2017 (Charles Steindel)
28   Seven Sins of Price-Targeting (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
17   State Labor Markets in April (Charles Steindel)
15   Is America on the Losing End on Trade With China? (Joseph G. Carson)
06   The "Muzzle" on Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
02   Why Isn't Consumer Price Inflation Higher? Might Ancient Monetary Theory Hold the Answer? (Paul L. Kasriel)
01   State GDP in 2018:Q4 (Charles Steindel)

April 2019
29   Q1 GDP-- Something Odd in the Number (Joseph G. Carson)
29   Transparency Has Failed the Fed (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in March (Charles Steindel)
08   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
05   Politics Invades Fed Policy: A Replay of the 1970s? (Joseph G. Carson)

March 2019
28   The Politics of Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
25   The Flattening Yield Curve – Perhaps It Is Not Different this Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
22   State Labor Markets in February (Charles Steindel)
20   "Is the Equity Bull Market Too Big to Fail?" (Joseph G. Carson)
12   State Labor Markets in January (Charles Steindel)
11   President's 2020 Budget: "Chaos" in the Numbers!!! (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Payroll Job Data Not A "Fluke": Reflects Slower Growth in Q1 (Joseph G. Carson)
08   Record U.S. Trade Deficit—Is it a Sign of Cyclical Strength or Structural Weakness? (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Fiscal Policy Experiment: Success or Failure (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2019
26   The New Inflation Debate (Joseph G. Carson)
26   State GDP in 2018:Q3 (Charles Steindel)
21   The Fed’s Mistake (Joseph G. Carson)
06   A New Working Theory of Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)

January 2019
31   Fed's Pause & Risks of A Hard Landing (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
18   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
18   "Opportunistic" Strategy for the Fed (Joseph G. Carson)
08   America's Trade and Production Problem (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
21   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
21   Fed Needs to Include Asset Prices in Their Playbook (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
10   Is the CPI or PCE the "Correct" Price Target for Monetary Policy? (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
20   Asset Cycles & Financial Crises: "Made In Washington" (Joseph G. Carson)
16   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
16   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
13   The Fed's New Challenge: Using Interest Rate Lever to Maintain Financial Stability (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2018
30   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
29   Early Report Card On Trump's Fiscal Policies---Grade C (Joseph G. Carson)
26   Equity Market Selloff Resembles Liquidity Squeeze of 2000 (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
15   Financial Stability Needs Rules Too! (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Consumer Spending By State (Charles Steindel)
03   "Irrational Exuberance" --- Part 3 (Joseph G. Carson)

September 2018
28   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
26   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
26   Finally, Policymakers Are Rethinking the 2% Inflation Target (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
19   The Lack of Adequate Policy Defenses Could Make the Next Crisis Much Worse (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Fed Policy: In Search of Rate Neutrality (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Are Inflation Expectations Moveable? (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes: The Sum of the Parts Greater than the Whole? (Charles Steindel)
20   Odd Couple: "A Genuine Economic Boom" & Bigger Budget Deficits (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
16   Foreclosures Continue to Ebb (Charles Steindel)
06   Why Has Core Consumer Inflation Stayed Flat (Joseph G. Carson)

July 2018
30   Fed’s Powell First Test--Fiscal Stimulus Boosts Q2 Nominal GDP to Its Fastest Growth Rate Since 2006 (Joseph G. Carson)
27   Business Employment Dynamics Adds More Context to Hurricane Maria’s Destruction (Charles Steindel)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   Something Missing: Yield Curve Signal Not Confirmed Elsewhere (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
16   US Tariff War: US Will End Up Taxing Its Own (Joseph G. Carson)

June 2018
29   Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
15   State Labor Markets Mirror National Strength in May (Charles Steindel)
14   Employer Costs for Q1 2018 (Charles Steindel)
12   Asset Cycles: "When The Music Stops Playing" (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Predictive Power of Yield Curve (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2018
23   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
22   To Win At Trade the US Must Act and Behave Like China (Joseph G. Carson)
18   State Payroll Employment Growth Remained Modest in April (Charles Steindel)
17   Real Incomes by State and Metro Areas (Charles Steindel)
04   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
01   Q1 GDP: Something Missing? (Joseph G. Carson)

April 2018
23   State Payroll Employment Growth Modest in March (Charles Steindel)
03   State Coincident Indicators (Charles Steindel)

March 2018
23   State Personal Income and Employment (Charles Steindel)
13   January State Employment Report (Charles Steindel)