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Viewpoints Archive

September 2019
03   US Purchasing Managers "Recession" Warning---- Few Firms Report Gains in Orders and Production

August 2019
29   Corporate Profits--- Long Slide Has Preceded Recessions in Years Past
28   China, Please Stop Selling US Goods at Prices Less Than We Can Produce Them
26   If Some Bloomberg TV Guest Pundits Were Weather Forecasters....
21   State Coincident Indexes
19   Bilateral Trade Balances – Whack-A-Mole?
16   State Labor Markets in July
13   Recession and the Signal from the Treasury Yield Curve
07   The Federal Budget--- "Unbalanced" Forever?
05   State Coincident Indexes

July 2019
26   The "Truth" on Profits – No Gain in Operating Earnings for the Past 5 Years
25   State GDP in 2019:Q1
22   Demise of Phillips Curve Shifts Focus to Asset Cycles and Financial Stability
19   State Labor Markets in June
12   Preemptive or Bubble-Making Monetary Policy
09   US Equity Market: An "Oasis" of Hope
05   State Coincident Indexes

June 2019
26   State Personal Income
24   The Fed's "Gamble"
21   State Labor Markets in May
17   Investors Are Overlooking One (Big) Thing: "Profits"
11   Is The Fed At Risk of Repeating the Mistakes of the Past?
05   Monetary Policy at a Crossroad--Testing the Limits of the Fed's Financial Engineering

May 2019
31   A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror
28   Real Income by State and MSA: 2017
28   Seven Sins of Price-Targeting
23   State Coincident Indexes
17   State Labor Markets in April
15   Is America on the Losing End on Trade With China?
06   The "Muzzle" on Inflation
02   Why Isn't Consumer Price Inflation Higher? Might Ancient Monetary Theory Hold the Answer?
01   State GDP in 2018:Q4

April 2019
29   Q1 GDP-- Something Odd in the Number
29   Transparency Has Failed the Fed
25   State Coincident Indexes
19   State Labor Markets in March
08   State Personal Income
05   Politics Invades Fed Policy: A Replay of the 1970s?

March 2019
28   The Politics of Inflation
25   The Flattening Yield Curve – Perhaps It Is Not Different this Time
22   State Labor Markets in February
20   "Is the equity bull market too big to fail?"
12   State Labor Markets in January
11   President's 2020 Budget: "Chaos" in the Numbers!!!
11   Payroll Job Data Not A "Fluke": Reflects Slower Growth in Q1
08   Record U.S. Trade Deficit—Is it a Sign of Cyclical Strength or Structural Weakness?
01   Fiscal Policy Experiment: Success or Failure

February 2019
26   The New Inflation Debate
26   State GDP in 2018:Q3
21   The Fed’s Mistake
06   A New Working Theory of Inflation

January 2019
31   Fed's Pause & Risks of A Hard Landing
25   State Coincident Indexes
18   State Labor Markets in December
18   "Opportunistic" Strategy for the Fed
08   America's Trade and Production Problem

December 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes
21   State Labor Markets in November
21   Fed Needs to Include Asset Prices in Their Playbook
20   State Personal Income
10   Is the CPI or PCE the "Correct" Price Target for Monetary Policy?

November 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes
20   Asset Cycles & Financial Crises: "Made In Washington"
16   State GDP
16   State Labor Markets in October
13   The Fed's New Challenge: Using Interest Rate Lever to Maintain Financial Stability

October 2018
30   State Coincident Indexes
29   Early Report Card On Trump's Fiscal Policies---Grade C
26   Equity Market Selloff Resembles Liquidity Squeeze of 2000
19   State Labor Markets in September
15   Financial Stability Needs Rules Too!
11   Consumer Spending By State
03   "Irrational Exuberance" --- Part 3

September 2018
28   State Coincident Indexes
26   State Personal Income
26   Finally, Policymakers Are Rethinking the 2% Inflation Target
21   State Labor Markets in August
19   The Lack of Adequate Policy Defenses Could Make the Next Crisis Much Worse
11   Fed Policy: In Search of Rate Neutrality
04   Are Inflation Expectations Moveable?

August 2018
27   The Sum of the Parts Greater than the Whole?
20   Odd Couple: "A Genuine Economic Boom" & Bigger Budget Deficits
17   State Labor Markets in July
16   Foreclosures Continue to Ebb
06   Why Has Core Consumer Inflation Stayed Flat

July 2018
30   Fed’s Powell First Test--Fiscal Stimulus Boosts Q2 Nominal GDP to Its Fastest Growth Rate Since 2006
27   Business Employment Dynamics Adds More Context to Hurricane Maria’s Destruction
25   State Coincident Indexes
24   Something Missing: Yield Curve Signal Not Confirmed Elsewhere
20   State Labor Markets in June
16   US Tariff War: US Will End Up Taxing Its Own

June 2018
29   Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indexes
15   State Labor Markets Mirror National Strength in May
14   Employer Costs for Q1 2018
12   Asset Cycles: "When The Music Stops Playing"
04   Predictive Power of Yield Curve

May 2018
23   State Coincident Indexes
22   To Win At Trade the US Must Act and Behave Like China
18   State Payroll Employment Growth Remained Modest in April
17   Real Incomes by State and Metro Areas
04   State GDP
01   Q1 GDP: Something Missing?

April 2018
23   State Payroll Employment Growth Modest in March
03   State Coincident Indicators

March 2018
23   State Personal Income and Employment
13   January State Employment Report