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Viewpoints Archive

January 2020
13   December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight (Joseph G. Carson)
10   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
09   The "Real" Phillips Curve Is Not Flat (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Two Equity Market Booms, Two Policy Paths (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2019
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
23   Festivus 2019 – I Got A Lot of Problems With You People About Wages! (Paul L. Kasriel)
20   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
19   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
13   GDP by County (Charles Steindel)
12   Profit "Inequality"---- Is It Possible That S&P 500 Companies Make Money & No One Else Does? (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2019
25   Just in Time, the Fed Found Easing Just in Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
25   "Financialization": A New Feature & Risk of Monetary Policy (Joseph G. Carson)
22   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
12   Monetary Policy Is Not in A "Good" Place (Joseph G. Carson)
07   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
04   Fed's Insurance Rate Cuts Don't Eliminate Risks They Create New Ones (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2019
31   The Fed to Banks: Why Don't You Just Tell Us How Many Reserves You Need? (Paul L. Kasriel)
30   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
30   A Fiscal Policy "Flop" (Joseph G. Carson)
28   Decade of Record Deficits & A Vulnerable Business Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)
21   The State of the Consumer: Views From Retail & Banks (Joseph G. Carson)
18   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
14   Trade Negotiations – US Agrees To A Farm Package, Not Trade Deal With China (Joseph G. Carson)
11   A Policy Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Payroll Data & Business Surveys Indicate Hiring Slump, Weak Growth And Profit Decline (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Consumer Spending by State (Charles Steindel)

September 2019
30   "Solving" The Profits Puzzle (Joseph G. Carson)
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   The Profits Puzzle (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
03   US Purchasing Managers "Recession" Warning---- Few Firms Report Gains in Orders and Production (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2019
29   Corporate Profits--- Long Slide Has Preceded Recessions in Years Past (Joseph G. Carson)
28   China, Please Stop Selling US Goods at Prices Less Than We Can Produce Them (Paul L. Kasriel)
26   If Some Bloomberg TV Guest Pundits Were Weather Forecasters....(Paul L. Kasriel)
21   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   Bilateral Trade Balances – Whack-A-Mole? (Paul L. Kasriel)
16   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
13   Recession and the Signal from the Treasury Yield Curve (Joseph G. Carson)
07   The Federal Budget--- "Unbalanced" Forever? (Joseph G. Carson)
05   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)

July 2019
26   The "Truth" on Profits – No Gain in Operating Earnings for the Past 5 Years (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State GDP in 2019:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
22   Demise of Phillips Curve Shifts Focus to Asset Cycles and Financial Stability (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
12   Preemptive or Bubble-Making Monetary Policy (Joseph G. Carson)
09   US Equity Market: An "Oasis" of Hope (Joseph G. Carson)
05   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)

June 2019
26   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   The Fed's "Gamble" (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in May (Charles Steindel)
17   Investors Are Overlooking One (Big) Thing: "Profits" (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Is The Fed At Risk of Repeating the Mistakes of the Past? (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Monetary Policy at a Crossroad--Testing the Limits of the Fed's Financial Engineering (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2019
31   A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror (Paul L. Kasriel)
28   Real Income by State and MSA: 2017 (Charles Steindel)
28   Seven Sins of Price-Targeting (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
17   State Labor Markets in April (Charles Steindel)
15   Is America on the Losing End on Trade With China? (Joseph G. Carson)
06   The "Muzzle" on Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
02   Why Isn't Consumer Price Inflation Higher? Might Ancient Monetary Theory Hold the Answer? (Paul L. Kasriel)
01   State GDP in 2018:Q4 (Charles Steindel)

April 2019
29   Q1 GDP-- Something Odd in the Number (Joseph G. Carson)
29   Transparency Has Failed the Fed (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in March (Charles Steindel)
08   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
05   Politics Invades Fed Policy: A Replay of the 1970s? (Joseph G. Carson)

March 2019
28   The Politics of Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
25   The Flattening Yield Curve – Perhaps It Is Not Different this Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
22   State Labor Markets in February (Charles Steindel)
20   "Is the equity bull market too big to fail?" (Joseph G. Carson)
12   State Labor Markets in January (Charles Steindel)
11   President's 2020 Budget: "Chaos" in the Numbers!!! (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Payroll Job Data Not A "Fluke": Reflects Slower Growth in Q1 (Joseph G. Carson)
08   Record U.S. Trade Deficit—Is it a Sign of Cyclical Strength or Structural Weakness? (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Fiscal Policy Experiment: Success or Failure (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2019
26   The New Inflation Debate (Joseph G. Carson)
26   State GDP in 2018:Q3 (Charles Steindel)
21   The Fed’s Mistake (Joseph G. Carson)
06   A New Working Theory of Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)

January 2019
31   Fed's Pause & Risks of A Hard Landing (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
18   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
18   "Opportunistic" Strategy for the Fed (Joseph G. Carson)
08   America's Trade and Production Problem (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
21   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
21   Fed Needs to Include Asset Prices in Their Playbook (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
10   Is the CPI or PCE the "Correct" Price Target for Monetary Policy? (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
20   Asset Cycles & Financial Crises: "Made In Washington" (Joseph G. Carson)
16   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
16   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
13   The Fed's New Challenge: Using Interest Rate Lever to Maintain Financial Stability (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2018
30   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
29   Early Report Card On Trump's Fiscal Policies---Grade C (Joseph G. Carson)
26   Equity Market Selloff Resembles Liquidity Squeeze of 2000 (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
15   Financial Stability Needs Rules Too! (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Consumer Spending By State (Charles Steindel)
03   "Irrational Exuberance" --- Part 3 (Joseph G. Carson)

September 2018
28   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
26   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
26   Finally, Policymakers Are Rethinking the 2% Inflation Target (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
19   The Lack of Adequate Policy Defenses Could Make the Next Crisis Much Worse (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Fed Policy: In Search of Rate Neutrality (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Are Inflation Expectations Moveable? (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes: The Sum of the Parts Greater than the Whole? (Charles Steindel)
20   Odd Couple: "A Genuine Economic Boom" & Bigger Budget Deficits (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
16   Foreclosures Continue to Ebb (Charles Steindel)
06   Why Has Core Consumer Inflation Stayed Flat (Joseph G. Carson)

July 2018
30   Fed’s Powell First Test--Fiscal Stimulus Boosts Q2 Nominal GDP to Its Fastest Growth Rate Since 2006 (Joseph G. Carson)
27   Business Employment Dynamics Adds More Context to Hurricane Maria’s Destruction (Charles Steindel)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   Something Missing: Yield Curve Signal Not Confirmed Elsewhere (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
16   US Tariff War: US Will End Up Taxing Its Own (Joseph G. Carson)

June 2018
29   Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
15   State Labor Markets Mirror National Strength in May (Charles Steindel)
14   Employer Costs for Q1 2018 (Charles Steindel)
12   Asset Cycles: "When The Music Stops Playing" (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Predictive Power of Yield Curve (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2018
23   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
22   To Win At Trade the US Must Act and Behave Like China (Joseph G. Carson)
18   State Payroll Employment Growth Remained Modest in April (Charles Steindel)
17   Real Incomes by State and Metro Areas (Charles Steindel)
04   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
01   Q1 GDP: Something Missing? (Joseph G. Carson)

April 2018
23   State Payroll Employment Growth Modest in March (Charles Steindel)
03   State Coincident Indicators (Charles Steindel)

March 2018
23   State Personal Income and Employment (Charles Steindel)
13   January State Employment Report (Charles Steindel)