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Viewpoints Archive

March 2021
01   Inflation Fears Are Probably Over-stated (Andrew Cates)
01   Pioneer of the Inflation Targeting Adds Asset Prices to Its Framework, While The Fed Adds More Fuel (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2021
22   Conversation With BLS About Price Mismeasurement For Housing (Joseph G. Carson)
19   Vaccination and Adaptation (Andrew Cates)
12   Heading the Right Way (Andrew Cates)
04   Fiscal Stimulus: How Much Is Too Much? Boom/Bust! (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Economic Performance Has Been OK Despite Difficult Headlines (Andrew Cates)

January 2021
26   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
26   Positive Scarring (Andrew Cates)
26   Two Decades of Price Mismeasurement & Policy Confusion (Joseph G. Carson)
25   Treasury Deficits/Debt – I Report, You Decide (Paul L. Kasriel)
19   This Is Not A Recovery: Lessons From 1980 (Joseph G. Carson)
13   Remote Working Limited the Economic Fallout In 2020, And Its Reversal Will Spur Growth In 2021 (Joseph G. Carson)
12   Some Reasons To Be Cheerful (Andrew Cates)

December 2020
30   2021 Could Be The Opposite of 2020: Economy Up & Equity Markets Down (Joseph G. Carson)
24   State Coincident Indexes in November (Charles Steindel)
24   State GDP in 2020:Q3 (Charles Steindel)
22   Festivus 2020 – I Got a Lot of Problems with You People (Paul L. Kasriel)
18   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
18   Good Riddance 2020! (Andrew Cates)
17   Plunge In Retail Sales Shows Vulnerable Consumer: Personal Savings Rate Is Overstated (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Personal Income in Q3 2020 (Charles Steindel)
14   Federal Taxes Paint Grim Picture on the Economy: Congress Should Take Notice (Joseph G. Carson)
09   Mr. Magoo's Bull Market: Investors Pay More For Growth & Worry Less About Debt (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2020
27   "Actual" Inflation Is Rising During The Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes in October (Charles Steindel)
24   The Light at the End of the Tunnel (Andrew Cates)
20   Unique Recession & Unusual Policies Create Uncertain Economic Outlook (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
16   Something Missing: Federal Income Taxes Are Missing the Rebound in Jobs & Income (Joseph G. Carson)
13   A Vaccine Game Changer And What It Might Mean (Andrew Cates)
02   Are Investors Prepared For A "Watershed" Election Outcome & A Rebirth of Federal Activism? (Joseph G. Carson)
02   The Second Wave Slowdown (Andrew Cates)

October 2020
29   A Unique Business Downturn & Environment: It's All About The Service Industries (Joseph G. Carson)
28   State Coincident Indexes in September (Charles Steindel)
26   Why Can't the Fed Raise the Inflation Rate? Why Would It Want To? (Paul L. Kasriel)
20   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
19   The Employment Data And Tax Receipts Don't Compute (Joseph G. Carson)
15   So What Now? (Andrew Cates)
13   Taxpayers Could Have Been Saved $674 Billion and Had the Covid Spread Curbed (Paul L. Kasriel)
08   Inflation Measures Are Meaningless Without House Prices: But Their Use Produces Huge Distortions (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Emerging Markets and COVID-19 (Andrew Cates)
02   State GDP in 2020:Q2 (Charles Steindel)
01   Employment Data: What Accounts for the Big Gap Between ADP and the Official Jobs Data? (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Retail Sales (August 2020): Retail Sales Fall at Milder Pace in August (Kelvin Lam)

September 2020
29   State Coincident Indexes in August (Charles Steindel)
28   Households Saving for a Rainier Day and Corporations Making Hay while the Sun Shines (Paul L. Kasriel)
25   Two Steps Forward, One Step Back (Andrew Cates)
24   State Personal Income in Q2 2020 (Charles Steindel)
18   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
18   Hong Kong Unemployment (August 2020): Labor Market Remains Feeble in the Short Run (Kelvin Lam)
17   Retail Spending & Tax Data: Two Reasons Why The Administration Decided To Go Big On Another Stimulus (Joseph G. Carson)
14   Liquidity Boom Fueled By Record Stimulus Has Ended: Equity Market Most Vulnerable (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Hard Times and Great Expectations (Andrew Cates)
08   "Averaging" Inflation Does Not Eliminate The Flaws In The Fed's Policy Approach; It Compounds Them (Joseph G. Carson)
02   2020 Drop In Operating Profits Mirrors 2008: Different Mix Shows The Need For More Fiscal Support (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2020
28   "Buying" More Inflation Is A Policy Mistake (Joseph G. Carson)
27   Asia's De-globalisation Nightmare and Covid-19 (Andrew Cates)
26   State Coincident Indexes in July (Charles Steindel)
26   Earth To Fed: Inflation Mandate Has Been Met (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
20   Taking Away the "Punch Bowl": Risk of Hard Landing in Consumer Spending (Joseph G. Carson)
19   Ramblings of a Congenital Pessimist (Paul L. Kasriel)
17   New Normal In Consumer Spending: Spending On Goods Up & Services Down (Joseph G. Carson)
13   Huge Holes in Europe with Limited Capacity to Climb Out Fast (Andrew Cates)
12   Failure to Reach Deal on Federal Stimulus Plan Risks Consumer Spending Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
10   Chaos In Governing During A Crisis Creates More Problems Than It Solves (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Global PMIs- A Rebound and a Fun-House Mirror Trick (Robert Brusca)
03   Second Quarter Government Transfer Payments Likely Took the Edge Off Covid-19 (Paul L. Kasriel)

July 2020
30   Biggest Decline in Nominal Output & Income In Our Lifetime (Joseph G. Carson)
24   2020 Is The Most Overvalued Equity Market In Our Lifetime (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Coincident Indexes in June (Charles Steindel)
21   Is It a V, U, or L? (Andrew Cates and Sandy Batten)
20   Pandemic-Driven Recession Is Not Over (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
16   EMU Trade Surplus Is Back in Style (Robert Brusca)
13   Japan's Tertiary Sector Weakens (Robert Brusca)
10   Q2 Federal Withheld Income Tax Receipts Plunge A Record 25% From Year Ago Levels (Joseph G. Carson)
07   UK Still Travelling in the Slow Lane (Andrew Cates)
07   State GDP in 2020:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
02   The Economic "Bounce" Is In: What's Next? (Joseph G. Carson)

June 2020
30   China's Manufacturing PMI Shows Resilience But Not a Hint of Strength (Robert Brusca)
26   State Coincident Indexes in May (Charles Steindel)
25   U.K. Retailing Continues to Reel Along with Global Prospects (Robert Brusca)
25   Some Relief for Europe But Not Much (Andrew Cates)
23   The Federal Reserve's Debt Problem (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Personal Income in Q1 2020 (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in May (Charles Steindel)
16   BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Part 2) (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Federal Tax Receipts Show A Record Plunge in May: Raising More Doubts About the Employment Data (Joseph G. Carson)
10   Taking the Temperature with Non-traditional Data (Andrew Cates)
08   Response to: BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Gerald D. Cohen)
08   BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Bombshell---Jobless Rate Falls Even As Millions More File Jobless Claims (Joseph G. Carson)
02   ISM Surveys of Manufacturing: Sharp Contraction Underway & No Sign of Recovery (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2020
27   State Coincident Indexes in April (Charles Steindel)
26   Our Exploding National Debt – How Will It Be Managed Post-Covid? (Paul L. Kasriel)
26   Something's Wrong: A Debt-Financed Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
22   State Labor Markets in April (Charles Steindel)
14   Uh-Oh!: Record Drop in Taxes Signal Deep Consumer Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
04   ISM April's New Order & Production Crash (Joseph G. Carson)
01   An Employment Report Like No Other (Peter D'Antonio)

April 2020
30   The Explosion of the Fed's and Banks' Balance Sheets: Not Inflationary, Yet (Paul L. Kasriel)
30   30 For 30: 30 Million Jobless Claims vs. 30% Gain in Equity Prices (Joseph G. Carson)
23   Focus Should be on COVID-19 Active Cases, Not Confirmed Cases (Peter D'Antonio)
22   State Coincident Indexes in March (Charles Steindel)
20   The "Best" Economy: Not Before, Nor After Coronavirus (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in March (Charles Steindel)
13   Does Encouraging OPEC to Cut Production Help Keep America Great? (Paul L. Kasriel)
13   Lessons from the 1980 "Inflation" Virus: Transmission Chain Needs to Be Broken for Successful Outcome (Joseph G. Carson)
10   State Coincident Indexes in February (Charles Steindel)
06   Massive Disruption in Labor Markets (Joseph G. Carson)
02   State Coincident Indexes in January (Charles Steindel)

March 2020
27   State Labor Markets in February (Charles Steindel)
26   "Deja Vu"--"Destroying the Economy By Trying to Save It" (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   Corona Clobbers PMIs; It's Here! Are YOU Next? (Robert Brusca)
17   A "Primer" on Recession: Post Recession Business & Finance Will Be Different (Joseph G. Carson)
16   State Labor Markets in January (Charles Steindel)
13   Investors Should Brace For A Record Decline In GDP (Joseph G. Carson)
05   COVID-19 – The Fed Can’t Cure What Ails You (Paul L. Kasriel)
03   Unstable Balance Between Finance & Economy Contributed to Equity Market Decline (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2020
21   "Deja Vu": Companies Don't Account For All Costs To Make Financial Results Appear Better (Joseph G. Carson)
12   Fed's Price Targeting Regime: Suggested Changes Fail to Fix the #1 Flaw--The Price Gauge (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Roadmap For 2020 Profits Is Filled With Potholes (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Greatest Economic Performance Ever? I Report, You Decide (Paul L. Kasriel)

January 2020
30   The Role of Monetary & Fiscal Policies In Equity Market Cycles (Joseph G. Carson)
29   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
22   Monetary Policy & Business Cycle Scripts Have Changed: Fed Policy Stimulates Finance Over Spending (Joseph G. Carson)
13   December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight (Joseph G. Carson)
10   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
09   The "Real" Phillips Curve Is Not Flat (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Two Equity Market Booms, Two Policy Paths (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2019
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
23   Festivus 2019 – I Got A Lot of Problems With You People About Wages! (Paul L. Kasriel)
20   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
19   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
13   GDP by County (Charles Steindel)
12   Profit "Inequality"---- Is It Possible That S&P 500 Companies Make Money & No One Else Does? (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2019
25   Just in Time, the Fed Found Easing Just in Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
25   "Financialization": A New Feature & Risk of Monetary Policy (Joseph G. Carson)
22   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
12   Monetary Policy Is Not in A "Good" Place (Joseph G. Carson)
07   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
04   Fed's Insurance Rate Cuts Don't Eliminate Risks They Create New Ones (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2019
31   The Fed to Banks: Why Don't You Just Tell Us How Many Reserves You Need? (Paul L. Kasriel)
30   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
30   A Fiscal Policy "Flop" (Joseph G. Carson)
28   Decade of Record Deficits & A Vulnerable Business Cycle (Joseph G. Carson)
21   The State of the Consumer: Views From Retail & Banks (Joseph G. Carson)
18   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
14   Trade Negotiations – US Agrees To A Farm Package, Not Trade Deal With China (Joseph G. Carson)
11   A Policy Recession (Joseph G. Carson)
07   Payroll Data & Business Surveys Indicate Hiring Slump, Weak Growth And Profit Decline (Joseph G. Carson)
03   Consumer Spending by State (Charles Steindel)

September 2019
30   "Solving" The Profits Puzzle (Joseph G. Carson)
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   The Profits Puzzle (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
03   US Purchasing Managers "Recession" Warning---- Few Firms Report Gains in Orders and Production (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2019
29   Corporate Profits--- Long Slide Has Preceded Recessions in Years Past (Joseph G. Carson)
28   China, Please Stop Selling US Goods at Prices Less Than We Can Produce Them (Paul L. Kasriel)
26   If Some Bloomberg TV Guest Pundits Were Weather Forecasters....(Paul L. Kasriel)
21   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   Bilateral Trade Balances – Whack-A-Mole? (Paul L. Kasriel)
16   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
13   Recession and the Signal from the Treasury Yield Curve (Joseph G. Carson)
07   The Federal Budget--- "Unbalanced" Forever? (Joseph G. Carson)
05   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)

July 2019
26   The "Truth" on Profits – No Gain in Operating Earnings for the Past 5 Years (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State GDP in 2019:Q1 (Charles Steindel)
22   Demise of Phillips Curve Shifts Focus to Asset Cycles and Financial Stability (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
12   Preemptive or Bubble-Making Monetary Policy (Joseph G. Carson)
09   US Equity Market: An "Oasis" of Hope (Joseph G. Carson)
05   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)

June 2019
26   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
24   The Fed's "Gamble" (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in May (Charles Steindel)
17   Investors Are Overlooking One (Big) Thing: "Profits" (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Is The Fed At Risk of Repeating the Mistakes of the Past? (Joseph G. Carson)
05   Monetary Policy at a Crossroad--Testing the Limits of the Fed's Financial Engineering (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2019
31   A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror (Paul L. Kasriel)
28   Real Income by State and MSA: 2017 (Charles Steindel)
28   Seven Sins of Price-Targeting (Joseph G. Carson)
23   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
17   State Labor Markets in April (Charles Steindel)
15   Is America on the Losing End on Trade With China? (Joseph G. Carson)
06   The "Muzzle" on Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
02   Why Isn't Consumer Price Inflation Higher? Might Ancient Monetary Theory Hold the Answer? (Paul L. Kasriel)
01   State GDP in 2018:Q4 (Charles Steindel)

April 2019
29   Q1 GDP-- Something Odd in the Number (Joseph G. Carson)
29   Transparency Has Failed the Fed (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
19   State Labor Markets in March (Charles Steindel)
08   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
05   Politics Invades Fed Policy: A Replay of the 1970s? (Joseph G. Carson)

March 2019
28   The Politics of Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)
25   The Flattening Yield Curve – Perhaps It Is Not Different this Time (Paul L. Kasriel)
22   State Labor Markets in February (Charles Steindel)
20   "Is the Equity Bull Market Too Big to Fail?" (Joseph G. Carson)
12   State Labor Markets in January (Charles Steindel)
11   President's 2020 Budget: "Chaos" in the Numbers!!! (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Payroll Job Data Not A "Fluke": Reflects Slower Growth in Q1 (Joseph G. Carson)
08   Record U.S. Trade Deficit—Is it a Sign of Cyclical Strength or Structural Weakness? (Joseph G. Carson)
01   Fiscal Policy Experiment: Success or Failure (Joseph G. Carson)

February 2019
26   The New Inflation Debate (Joseph G. Carson)
26   State GDP in 2018:Q3 (Charles Steindel)
21   The Fed’s Mistake (Joseph G. Carson)
06   A New Working Theory of Inflation (Joseph G. Carson)

January 2019
31   Fed's Pause & Risks of A Hard Landing (Joseph G. Carson)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
18   State Labor Markets in December (Charles Steindel)
18   "Opportunistic" Strategy for the Fed (Joseph G. Carson)
08   America's Trade and Production Problem (Joseph G. Carson)

December 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
21   State Labor Markets in November (Charles Steindel)
21   Fed Needs to Include Asset Prices in Their Playbook (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
10   Is the CPI or PCE the "Correct" Price Target for Monetary Policy? (Joseph G. Carson)

November 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
20   Asset Cycles & Financial Crises: "Made In Washington" (Joseph G. Carson)
16   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
16   State Labor Markets in October (Charles Steindel)
13   The Fed's New Challenge: Using Interest Rate Lever to Maintain Financial Stability (Joseph G. Carson)

October 2018
30   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
29   Early Report Card On Trump's Fiscal Policies---Grade C (Joseph G. Carson)
26   Equity Market Selloff Resembles Liquidity Squeeze of 2000 (Joseph G. Carson)
19   State Labor Markets in September (Charles Steindel)
15   Financial Stability Needs Rules Too! (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Consumer Spending By State (Charles Steindel)
03   "Irrational Exuberance" --- Part 3 (Joseph G. Carson)

September 2018
28   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
26   State Personal Income (Charles Steindel)
26   Finally, Policymakers Are Rethinking the 2% Inflation Target (Joseph G. Carson)
21   State Labor Markets in August (Charles Steindel)
19   The Lack of Adequate Policy Defenses Could Make the Next Crisis Much Worse (Joseph G. Carson)
11   Fed Policy: In Search of Rate Neutrality (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Are Inflation Expectations Moveable? (Joseph G. Carson)

August 2018
27   State Coincident Indexes: The Sum of the Parts Greater than the Whole? (Charles Steindel)
20   Odd Couple: "A Genuine Economic Boom" & Bigger Budget Deficits (Joseph G. Carson)
17   State Labor Markets in July (Charles Steindel)
16   Foreclosures Continue to Ebb (Charles Steindel)
06   Why Has Core Consumer Inflation Stayed Flat (Joseph G. Carson)

July 2018
30   Fed’s Powell First Test--Fiscal Stimulus Boosts Q2 Nominal GDP to Its Fastest Growth Rate Since 2006 (Joseph G. Carson)
27   Business Employment Dynamics Adds More Context to Hurricane Maria’s Destruction (Charles Steindel)
25   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
24   Something Missing: Yield Curve Signal Not Confirmed Elsewhere (Joseph G. Carson)
20   State Labor Markets in June (Charles Steindel)
16   US Tariff War: US Will End Up Taxing Its Own (Joseph G. Carson)

June 2018
29   Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
15   State Labor Markets Mirror National Strength in May (Charles Steindel)
14   Employer Costs for Q1 2018 (Charles Steindel)
12   Asset Cycles: "When The Music Stops Playing" (Joseph G. Carson)
04   Predictive Power of Yield Curve (Joseph G. Carson)

May 2018
23   State Coincident Indexes (Charles Steindel)
22   To Win At Trade the US Must Act and Behave Like China (Joseph G. Carson)
18   State Payroll Employment Growth Remained Modest in April (Charles Steindel)
17   Real Incomes by State and Metro Areas (Charles Steindel)
04   State GDP (Charles Steindel)
01   Q1 GDP: Something Missing? (Joseph G. Carson)

April 2018
23   State Payroll Employment Growth Modest in March (Charles Steindel)
03   State Coincident Indicators (Charles Steindel)

March 2018
23   State Personal Income and Employment (Charles Steindel)
13   January State Employment Report (Charles Steindel)