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Commentary Archive

May 2012
16   U.S. Housing Starts Rebound
16   U.S. Industrial Output Rebounds With Utility Gain
16   U.S. Mortgage Applications Recover With More Refinancing
16   EMU Trade Flows Wither As Surplus Rises
15   U.S. Retail Sales Strength Pulls Back
15   U.S. Home Builders' Index Again At Five-year High
15   Empire State Factory Index Improves
15   U.S. Overall CPI Is Unchanged; Core Price Increase Is Stable
15   U.S. Petroleum Prices Continue Downward
15   EMU GDP Weakens For Many But Overall Holds At Zero
14   Euro-Area IP Is Up in March And Still Off Year/Year
11   U.S. PPI Declines But Core Remains Firm
11   German Inflation Overshoot Continues But Diminishes Euro-Area Differences Continue And Barely Diminish
11   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Reaches Four Year high
10   U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Remain Low
10   U.S. Import Price Decline Fueled By Oil Price Drop
10   U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens Sharply
10   LEIs: US and China Still Moving Ahead
09   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Lose Upward Momentum
09   U.S. Chain Store Sales Slip Again
09   U.S. Mortgage Applications Improve As Rates Plumb A New Low
09   German Trade Balance Steadies on Solid Exports
08   U.S. Small Business Optimism Reaches Recovery High
08   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Increase To Recovery High
08   U.S. Petroleum Prices Are Under Pressure
08   German IP Decline Slaps On The Brakes...
07   U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Revives
07   German Orders Rebound and show Mixed Patterns
04   U.S. Employment Growth Disappoints Again; Jobless Rate Declines
04   EMU Retail Sales Move Higher
03   U.S. Labor Productivity Falls And Drives Up Costs
03   Challenger Reports A Slight Rise In Job Cuts
03   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Indicates Slower Expansion
03   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall Sharply
02   ADP Report Indicates Hiring Slowdown
02   U.S. Factory Orders Decline With Fewer Aircraft Bookings
02   U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline in April
02   EMU Weaker on PMI Scale
01   U.S. ISM Factory Index Unexpectedly Improves Further
01   U.S. Vehicle Sales Are High and Stable M/M
01   U.S. Construction Spending Stabilizes
01   U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall Again
01   Manufacturing PMIs in US, Canada UK and Ireland

April 2012
30   U.S. Personal Income Gain Helps Stabilize Savings Drawdown
30   Rising Unemployment and Austerity in the Euro Area
27   U.S. GDP Growth Is Disappointing
27   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Slightly
27   U.S. GDP Growth Is Disappointing
27   Confidence Loses Its Grip
26   U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Remain Near Earlier High
26   U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump
26   U.S. Chicago Fed Index Turns Negative
26   EU Commission Indices Weaken In April...For Most
25   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Dragged Lower By Aircraft
25   FOMC Sustains Level of Monetary Accommodation
25   U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline
25   UK CBI Industrial Orders Slow And Show More Weakness
24   U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Ticks Higher
24   U.S. Energy Prices Fall With Lower Demand
24   Financial Matters and French Household Confidence
24   U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Slightly
24   U.S. New Home Sales And Prices Decline
23   State Unemployment Rates Show Great Variation & Improvement
23   EMU PMIs Say Brace For Worse Times Ahead! While the IFO's Reading & EC readings Say Markit's PMIs Are Too Dismal
23   Netherlands Rebels Against Austerity--The Mood of the People
20   Has Germany Dodged The Bullet?
19   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Stutter
19   U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall
19   U.S. Leading Indicator Gain Moderates
19   Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Slips M/M but Shows Continued Growth
19   German-Italian Orders...And What They Tell Us About The EMU Upside-Down Cake
18   U.S. Mortgage Applications For Refinancing Surge
18   EMU Current Account Swings to Deficit
17   U.S. Housing Starts Stay In The Cellar
17   German Financial Community Still Confident About Germany But Wary of the Euro Area
17   U.S. Chain Store Sales Fall
17   U.S. Energy Prices Decline
17   U.S. Industrial Output Remains Unchanged; Factory Output Slips
16   U.S. Retail Sales Show Broad-based Gains
16   U.S. Business Inventory Growth Is Moderate; I/S Ratio Near Record Low
16   U.S. Home Builders' Index Declines
16   Empire State Factory Index Shows Moderation In Activity
16   Japanese Retail Sales
13   U.S. Overall CPI Gain Eases; Core Rate Firms
13   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Moderates
12   U.S. PPI Is Unchanged But Core Remains Firm
12   French Consumer Prices Show Some Pressure
12   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
12   U.S. Trade Deficit Slides As Imports Decline
11   U.S. Import Prices Jump With Petroleum Prices
11   U.S. Mortgage Applications Slip Despite Interest Rate Decline
11   IP Trends Ramp Lower Across Zone
10   U.S. Small Businesses Show Broad-based Concerns
10   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Hold Steady
10   U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Stable & Crude Oil Falls
10   China's Manufacturing PMIs Are Pointing In Opposite Directions
09   U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Growth Slows
09   Mixed Signals From Japan
06   U.S. Employment Growth Weakens
05   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Continue Downward
05   German Industrial Output Shrinks Year-Over-Year
05   Challenger Indicates Fewer Job Cuts and Increased Hiring
04   ADP Report Estimates Payrolls Rise 209,000
04   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Retraces Its Earlier Gain
03   U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue Higher But Crude Oil Slips
03   U.S. Vehicle Sales Dip But Remain Firm
03   The Untenable Euro-Area
03   Expected Increase in Brazilian Industrial Production May Dampen Protectionist Fever
03   U.S. Factory Orders Recover Along With Backlogs
02   U.S. ISM Factory Index Nudges Up But Prices Slip
02   Japan's Tankan: Some Promise of Future Progress
02   Japan: The Yen Since The Bank of Japan's Policy Change in Mid February
02   U.S. Construction Spending Falls Again Despite The Mild Winter

March 2012
30   U.S. Personal Income Gain Is Disappointing And Savings Decline
30   German Retail Sales Ere Even Weaker - How Is It Possible?
30   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves
29   U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Continue Downward
29   EMU Indices Take Gnarled Route to Nowhere
29   U.S. 3.0% GDP Growth Estimate Unchanged; Profit Growth Declines
28   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound
28   Italy Leads EMU Retail Sales Lower Despite Bump-up
28   U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline Again With Higher Interest Rates
27   U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Lower
27   Some Consumer Surveys Are Hinting At A Rise In Propensity To Consume
27   U.S. Consumer Confidence Strengthens Y/Y; Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply As Well
27   U.S. Gasoline Price Rise Is Relentless
26   U.S. Chicago Fed Index Deteriorates M/M But Trend Is Positive
26   U.S. Pending Home Sales Slip
26   German Business Confidence Holds Steady
23   U.S. New Home Sales Edge Lower Again But Prices Firm
23   French Biz Indicator Turns Up
22   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reach Another Low
22   EMU PMIs Drop...Europe Dead? Draghi Upbeat? Oh yeah...
22   FHFA Home Price Index Decline Lessens Y/Y
22   U.S. Leading Indicators Post Another Firm Gain
21   U.S. Existing Home Sales Slip As Prices Tick Up
21   Japan Sector Indices Paint Mixed Picture
21   U.S. Mortgage Applications Drop With Interest Rate Rise
20   U.S. Housing Starts Stutter But Permits Gain
20   The Benelux Consumers
20   U.S. Chain Store Sales Strengthen
20   U.S. Gasoline Price Increase Discourages Driving
19   U.S. Home Builders' Index Is Firm But Unchanged M/M
19   Brazil Combats the Rise in its Currency with Intervention and Capital Controls
16   U.S. Total CPI Rise Strengthens; Core Increase Eases
16   EMU Trade Surplus Shrinks But It Is Still Large
16   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Disappoints
16   U.S. Industrial Output Is Stable; Factory Output Gains
16   UK PPI Getting Back Into Trouble HICP Still in Deep Trouble
15   U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Return to Four Year Low
15   Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index Moves Up
15   Empire State Factory Index Improves Further
15   U.S. PPI Picks Up; Core Moderates
14   U.S. Import Prices Again Firm Due To Oil
14   U.S. Current Account Deficit Deteriorates Slightly
14   US Fails to Follow EMU IP Collapse...So Far
14   U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall With Less Refinancing
14   U.S. Business Inventory Growth Continues Moderate
13   U.S. Retail Sales Driven By Autos & Gasoline
13   U.S. Gasoline Prices Move Higher While Natural Gas Plunges
13   FOMC Assessment of Economy Improves; Rates To Stay Low
13   Sentiment Among German Investor And Analyst Improves
13   U.S. Small Business Optimism Nears Recovery High
13   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Ease
12   U.S. Budget Deficit Is Reduced By Spending Restraint
12   A Record Trade Deficit For China
09   U.S. Jobs Growth & Unemployment Rate Are Stable
09   U.S. Trade Deficit Widens With Higher Oil Values
09   German Trade Trends Show Ongoing Slowing and Shrinkage
08   U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Continues Rising
08   U.S. Flow-of-Funds Show Some Progress toward Financial Institution Recovery
08   German MFG IP Points Mostly Lower
08   U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Are Still Near Four Year Low
08   Challenger Indicates A Slight Decline in Job Cuts
07   ADP Report Shows Job Market Improvement
07   German Orders...Not Marching Orders But Crawling Orders...
07   U.S. Mortgage Applications Slip W/W But Surge Y/Y
06   Economic Recovery in Eastern Europe
06   U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue Higher
06   Slight Improvement In Manufacturing In The Euro-Area In February
06   U.S. Chain Store Sales' Forward Momentum Improves
05   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Reaches 12-Month High
05   U.S. Factory Orders Fall While Inventories Build
02   U.S. Vehicle Sales Fueled Again By Cars
02   German Retail Sales Show That Sinking Trend
01   U.S.Income & Spending Weaken
01   PMI Advance Gets Ragged Early
01   U.S. ISM Factory Index Slips As Prices Recover
01   U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance At Four Year Low
01   U.S. Construction Spending Slips Following Earlier Strength

February 2012
29   U.S. GDP Growth Is Revised Up
29   EMU Inflation Turns Lower
28   U.S. Gasoline Prices Jump To Record High
28   A Slight Improvement in Sentiment in the Euro-Area
28   U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds
28   U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls Again
28   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retrace Earlier Gain
27   NABE Forecasts Moderate Economic Improvement & Low Inflation
27   Money Supplies: US Heats Up as UK Stays in Big Chill... As Growth Rates Flat-Line Elsewhere
27   A Note on the Bank of Korea's Survey of Business Conditions Index
27   U.S. Pending Home Sales Recover Earlier Decline
24   U.S. New Home Sales Edge Lower; Recent Months Revised Upward
24   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves
23   U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Are Stable And Low
23   Germany Digs Its Way Out
23   FHFA Again Reports Home Price Improvement
22   U.S. Energy Prices Are Driven Higher
22   EMU Flash PMI Readings Disappoint
22   U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise To New High As Prices Fall
22   U.S. Chain Store Sales Show More Life
21   U.S. Chicago Fed Index Is Again Positive
21   Thailand: The Floods and the Fourth Quarter GDP
20   Japan's Trade Deficit -- The Bank of Japan to the Rescue
17   U.S. CPI Picks Up
17   U.S. Leading Indicators Point Toward Continued Recovery
16   U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Fall To New Low
16   Italy Gets Substantial Trade Adjustment In Gear
16   Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index Gains
16   U.S. PPI Posts Minimal Increase; Core Firm
16   U.S. Housing Starts Rise
15   Empire State Factory Index Increases to Highest Since 2010
15   U.S. Home Builders' Index Again Is Strong
15   U.S. Industrial Output Is Unchanged But Factory Gain Is Solid
15   Europe's Growth Divide and its Civil War
14   U.S. Retail Sales Rise Despite Fewer Auto Purchases
14   U.S. Business Inventory Growth Remains Moderate
14   German Investors And Analyst Turn Positive: Greek Debt Agreement The Reason?
14   U.S. Import Prices Increase With Oil Prices
14   U.S. Small Business Optimism Is Stable At Recent High
13   Forecasts For U.S. Growth & Inflation Are Subdued
13   Japan's Q4-11 Gross Domestic Product Disappoints
10   U.S. Trade Deficit Is Widest Since June As Imports Rise
10   German Survey Hits The Heights-Stays There
10   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slips
09   U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Continue To Trend Lower
09   U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales are Strong Again
09   UK IP Turns Up In December: Is It Worth A Lot Of Fuss?
08   U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Surges, Again
08   German Trade Surplus Shrinks as Exports and Imports Wither
08   U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise Again With Refinancing Surge
07   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Are Recovering
07   U.S. Gasoline Prices Firm Although Demand Falls Sharply
07   U.S. Chain Store Sales Nudge Up
07   German Upcoming Wage Negotiations
06   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Show Moderate Improvement
06   Housing Prices In The UK
03   U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Jump; Jobless Rate At 3-Year Low
03   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improves Sharply
03   EU Retail Sales Turn Lower Except for UK
02   U.S. Vehicle Sales Strength Driven By Cars
02   PPI Trends in EMU
02   U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Fall
02   U.S. Labor Productivity Increases Modestly While Compensation Jumps
02   Challenger Indicates A Jump in Job Cuts
01   ADP Indicates Slower Job Growth
01   U.S. Construction Spending Firms
01   U.S. ISM Factory Index Nudges Higher as Pricing Improves
01   MFG PMIs Continue to Show Softer Blow to EMU Region...As EMU Becomes A Matter of Faith

January 2012
31   U.S. Employment Cost Index Posts Stable Increase
31   China's Trade Surplus Continues Its Slow Decline
31   U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines Sharply
31   U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Modestly
30   U.S. Consumers Choose To Save Income Gain
30   EMU Indices Show Some Slowing in Unravel
30   Japan's 2011 Trade Balance: First Deficit Since 1980
30   Intuit Indicates Small Business Hiring But Weak Earnings
27   U.S. GDP Growth Is Strongest Since Q2'10 But Misses Expectations
27   New Leading Credit Index Gives Mixed Signals for Total Economy
27   World Money Supplies: Vastly Different Trends
27   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Further
26   U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Move Slightly Higher
26   U.S. Leading Indicators Revamped; Index Suggests Continuing Improvement in Economy
26   German Confidence Edges Upward
26   U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Fall
26   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Again Reflecting Broad-Based Increases
26   U.S. Chicago Fed Index Shows Improvement
25   U.S. Mortgage Applications For Refinancing Remain High
25   U.S. Pending Home Sales Stutter
24   U.S. Natural Gas Price Plumbs A New Low; Petroleum Prices Roughly Stable
24   January Flash PMIs Raise Hopes for a Better Economy in the Euro Area in the First Quarter of 2012
24   U.S. Richmond Fed Index Improves
24   U.S. Chain Store Sales Continue Their Post-Holiday Skid
23   French Business Climate Indicators Pointing to Recession
20   U.S. Existing Home Sales Surge Again As Prices Rise
20   UK Retail Sales Begin to Show Recovery
19   U.S. CPI Is Again Unchanged M/M But Accelerates Y/Y
19   Euro-Area Current Account Deficit cut by rising Trade Surplus
19   Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index Increases
19   U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Fall To Lowest Since 2008
19   U.S. Housing Starts Slip M/M But Rise Y/Y
18   U.S. PPI Slips M/M With Lower Food & Energy Costs; Full Year Gain Accelerates
18   U.S. Gasoline Price Ticks Up But Crude Oil Slips
18   U.S. Home Builders' Index Jumps To Highest Since 2007
18   U.S. Industrial Production Rebounds M/M But Trend Gain Slows
18   Japan IP: All Signs Point Lower
17   Empire State Factory Index Shows Expansion
17   The Zew Survey Shows big German Improvement...Do We Believe It?
17   Some Upbeat Economic News From Japan
13   U.S. Trade Deficit Is Deepest in Five Months
13   U.S. Consumer Sentiment Continues To Improve
13   U.S. Import Prices Slip With Lower Oil Prices
13   Euro-Area Surplus Jumps as Exports Gain Strongly and Imports Flat-Line
13   OECD LEIs
12   U.S. Business Inventory Growth Eases
12   U.S. Initial Claims Highest Since November
12   U.S. Retail Sales Gain Minimally
11   U.S. Joblessness Remains Elevated
11   U.S. Mortgage Applications & Interest Rates Trend Sideways
10   U.S. Small Business Optimism Improves Further
10   China's December Trade Data Suggest Slower Economic Growth
10   U.S. Crude Oil & Gasoline Prices Rise Again
10   U.S. JOLTS Rate Slips From Latest High
10   U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Surges
09   Irish Consumers Become More Pessimistic
09   Germany Continue to Weaken As Industrial Output Slides
06   U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Post Moderate Increase; Unemployment Rate Lower
06   German Foreign Orders Plunge...Again
05   U.S. Vehicle Sales End Year On A Firm Note
05   Challenger Reports Fewer Job Cuts
05   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improves Just Slightly
05   U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Decline
05   ADP Reports Further Strengthening In Job Growth
04   Intuit Small Business Series Increases Further
04   U.S. Factory Orders Sharply Increase And Inventories Build
04   U.S. Chain Store Sales Reach Record During Holiday Season
04   EMU PMI Services Index Rebounds As Politics And Financial Decay
04   U.S. Crude Oil & Gasoline Prices Rise
03   U.S. ISM Factory Index Reaches A Six-Month High
03   The Euro Crisis And Its Effect On Manufacturing In Emerging Markets
03   U.S. Construction Spending Gain Is Better-Than-Expected