February 1, 2010
By Tom Moeller
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
· Construction activity moved lower, again. During December construction outlays fell 1.2% after a 1.2% November shortfall that was double the initial estimate. The latest decline was double the Consensus estimate. The worst of the news, however, was that for the full year the 12.2% shortfall in activity was nearly double the 2008 rate of decline and the third consecutive yearly drop. · The December decline in residential building activity matched its November rate and pulled spending down again by nearly one-third y/y. Moreover, the latest level was nearly two-thirds below the 2006 high. Single-family construction activity has shown positive growth for the last seven months; however, the monthly gains have been steadily receding and overall activity was down one-half for the year. That was fourth consecutive year of lower residential building activity and it's off three-quarters from the 2006 peak. Multi-family construction activity fell nearly one-third for the year and it is off nearly two-thirds from the 2007 peak. The source of relative strength came from residential improvements which fell just 2.2% for 2009 and was off just one-quarter from the 2007 peak. · Nonresidential building activity fell another 1.8% during December and was off 11.2% for the year. Since the 2008 peak, activity has fallen by 26.9%. Spending in the food & beverage industry fell by one-third for the year. Expenditures in the lodging industry were off a similar amount. Commercial building overall fell by two-thirds y/y while office building dropped similarly. Relatively moderate were the declines in the education (-9.8% y/y), religious (-10.6% y/y) and health care (-5.1% y/y) sectors. · In the public sector, construction rose 3.7% for the year, despite lower tax revenues. Building activity on highways & streets rose 3.3% for the year as the focus on infrastructure rebuilding grew. Public spending on health care facilities increased a strong 14.7% y/y but building in the education sector rose just 1.5% for the full year. · The construction put-in-place figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
|
| Construction (%) | December | November | October |
Y/Y |
2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
| Total | -1.2 | -1.2 | 1.5 | -9.9 | -12.2 | -6.9 | -1.6 |
| Private | -1.2 | -1.1 | 4.7 | -14.9 | -18.5 | -11.1 | -5.7 |
| Residential | -2.8 | -1.4 | 11.8 | -10.9 | -27.8 | -29.1 | -19.7 |
| Nonresidential | 0.2 | -0.9 | -3.6 | -17.7 | -10.6 | 13.2 | 23.1 |
| Public | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 13.1 |
© 2009 HAVER ANALYTICS. All rights reserved.