· UK retail sales showed a sharp bump up in May of this year. Since that time it has been all downhill for the three major trends in retail sales: 3-mo, 6-mo and Yr/yr. The trends generally display a progressive deterioration in the pace of sales. 

· Over three-months there is a slight uptick in these deteriorating trends and one that spreads across the main growths we display in the table. Even real retail sales ex- autos show some lift. But retail sales are volatile and vagaries of weather and calendar can imbue a month with unexpected results. If we take the growth in July annualized over the level of sales Q2 we find that quarter-to-date sales are not just losing momentum but declining. The bump up in July was not enough to offset the sharp weakness experienced in June. That suggests that the June/July period taken together is a better barometer of sales trends. 

UK Real and Nominal Retail Sales

Nominal

Jul-08

Jun-08

May-08

3-Mo

6-Mo

12-Mo

Yr Ago

Quarter-2-date

Retail Total

1.0%

-3.9%

4.2%

4.6%

3.2%

3.6%

3.2%

-1.8%

Food Beverages & Tobacco

1.2%

-3.2%

4.3%

9.0%

5.3%

6.8%

0.6%

2.6%

Clothing Footwear

2.2%

-7.7%

9.5%

14.2%

1.9%

1.7%

1.5%

-1.0%

Real

Retail Ex Auto

0.8%

-4.3%

4.0%

1.2%

0.4%

2.0%

4.4%

-5.0%