U.S. Business Inventory Gain the Strongest Since January Distorted by Oil Prices

August 13, 2008

By Tom Moeller

· Total business inventories jumped 0.7% during June after an upwardly revised 0.4% May increase. The latest increase exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise and it was the strongest gain since January. The three-month growth in inventories rose to 6.2% (AR) from roughly 4% during the prior two months. 

· Higher wholesale inventories led the gain the total with a 1.1% jump during June and at a 14.1% rate during the last three months, again boosted by the rise in oil prices. Nevertheless, less petroleum wholesale inventories rose at a 12.0% rate during those three months which was more than twice the rate of increase during all of last year.

· Retail inventories fell 0.1% after a revised 0.3% May decline. The drops left the three-month growth rate negative at -0.5% reflecting the draw-down of automobile inventories. Inventories of motor vehicle & parts fell at a 6.2% annual rate during the last three months due to further production cutbacks. Outside of autos, retail inventories rose at a 2.2% rate over the last three months and that reversed three months of decumulation.

 · The industry detail in the retail sector indicated that lower apparel inventories led the recent weakness in the total with a 0.9% rate of decline. Furniture inventories rose at a 3.9% rate during the last three months and general merchandise inventories rose at a 2.3% rate. Both of these gains reverse prior declines. Clothing & accessory store inventories still fell at a 0.9% rate over the last three months after an 8.1% rate of decline back in March.

· Factory inventories jumped 1.0% and that left the three-month rate of accumulation steady at 6.4%.

· Total business sales jumped another 1.7% led higher by the rise in oil prices which lifted factory sales by 1.6%.

 

Business Inventories

June

May

Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total 0.7% 0.4% 5.6% 3.8% 5.9% 6.0%
  Retail -0.1% -0.3% 0.9% 2.6% 3.5% 2.3%
    Retail excl. Auto 0.1% -0.1% 1.3% 2.7% 4.9% 3.9%
  Wholesale 1.1% 0.9% 9.5% 5.5% 8.3% 7.3%
  Manufacturing 1.0% 0.6% 7.0% 3.7% 6.4% 8.9%

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