· According to the International Council of Shopping Centers chain store sales fell 0.2% last week and that was enough to return the level of sales to where it was in the third week of June. Sales were still up 0.4% from the June average after that month's 0.5% rise.

· During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

· The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS slipped again by 0.3% (-6.1% y/y) after the 1.5% decline during the week prior.

· The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

· Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here. 

· The Industrial evolution and the Demographic Transition from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.