Japan’s Economy Watcher’s Index Plunges

August 8, 2008

By Robert Brusca

· Too much watching, not enough spending?

· Japan’s economy watchers index has dropped sharply. Its components are all on 5-Year lows and have been that way for two months running. The NTC MFG index is on a five year low. The Teikoku industry readings are on five year lows. Japan’s own LEI has been weak but in the OECD treatment the trend restored indices have Japan’s index on a rising trend, but steady month-to-month. The readings in these Japan-based reports are much weaker than the OECD’s. And Japan is looking very weak. 

Key Japanese surveys

 

Raw readings of each survey

Percent of 5Yr range*

 

Jul-08

Jun-08

May-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Jun-08

May-08

Diffusion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economy Watchers

29.3

29.5

32.1

35.5

7.0%

0.0%

1.2%

Employment

24.1

26.4

31.9

33.6

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Future

30.8

32.1

35.1

36.1

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

NTC MFG

47.1

46.5

47.7

48.6

5.3%

0.0%

0.0%

Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion)

             

MFG

32.9

34.4

35.6

36.9

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Retail

28.3

28.7

31.5

32.1

0.0%

0.0%

1.4%

Wholesale

31.0

32.4

33.9

34.5

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Services

36.2

37.5

39.7

40.4

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Construction

25.5

26.9

27.1

28.0

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100 is high; Zero is low

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